Is 2025 the year MLB breaks StatCast? Will it be the last time we care about blue and red on the pitcher's StatCast page? Or am I simply cherry-picking stats to pick apart the modern game that vexes me so? Check back at the end of 2025 to see how many of these pitchers outran the peripherals. In the meantime, watch pitchers pitch, trust your eyes, your instincts & do what's right.
Seth Lugo SP KC
StatCast likes absolutely nothing about Seth Lugo. You know he was coming, so what's the gap? Second on the list of SPs outrunning StatCast, Seth sits currently at 2.65 for ERA but the Machine says Lugo looms with an xERA of 4.41. How about Expected Weighted On-base Average? Wide gulf, with actual at .288 and anticipated at a notably higher .338. Lugo's dealing a 2.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP as he closes in on 100 IP for 2025. Feel free to look away from Seth if he's offered to you, but he's helping the bottom line on fantasy teams, so don't let go Lugo (unless of course you can fleece a desperate Burns, et. al manager of their finest offensive tool).
Nathan Eovaldi SP TEX
StatCast is red all over for Eovaldi, but the expected stats don't believe a word he says. Alright StatCast, just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean they're not after you: Nathan's neat current ERA of 1.75 dwarfs the expected (yet still usable) xERA of 3.44. It's a significant gap, though, as is his Expected Weighted On-base Average of .302 versus the actual lower number of .231. I believe this to be a case of StatCast liking a pitcher, but not "liking", if you catch my drift. In other words, just friends. Either way, you should take Eovaldi all the way in 2025, no matter StatCast's misgivings because in this case, the predictive model (no matter how it judges Eovaldi's makeup) looks just fine.
Yusei Kikuchi SP LAA
Yusei he's a popular guy around here, but mostly for wordplay? Right and wrong, much like StatCast when it comes to Kikuchi. Something called his Breaking Run Value is elite, a stat that the computer drools about related to his breaking stuff, I'd assume. However, expected stats expects far worse than his terrific actual ERA of 2.81: the robot thinks an xERA of 4.10 is more realistic. What is real? Well, July 4th 2025 might be the worst time in recorded history for an accurate answer, but if forced to consider, I'd say Kikuchi is a keeper for the K per IP but Yusei he's waiver wire fodder. In this case, we're both right! I should write a Big, Beautiful...forget it.
Clay Holmes SP NYM
StatCast loves the son of a preacher man's Groundball Rate of 54% but they don't care much for the denomination of Holmes other stats, highlighted by an actual ERA of 2.99 that StatCast thinks should balloon to an xERA of 4.18. Could this be related to the OK but not great defense in NYM? Is it because of his great-uncle John? Expected Weighted On-base Average is .330 while the actual dips far lower at .296. In summary, StatCast doesn't believe in the mold of this Clay, but real life exhibits him to be a 2.99 ERA pitcher with 8 Wins. Personally, I would trade him after his next great start for something you really need, because I don't buy the sustained success. Gulp! Did I just agree with StatCast? Listen, if you look across enemy lines and can't recognize at least one friendly face in the crowd, you're not looking hard enough.
Andrew Abbott SP CIN
StatCast swoons over Andrew, a sea of red bathes his page, highlighted by the 33% Hard Hit and a Great Pitching Value metric. Perhaps he's more a victim of his own outlandishly low ERA of 1.79, that StatCast expects to be closer to 3.05, which isn't even a problem. Abbott is about as good as it gets in reality, depsite the ERA disparity. He Ks nearly one per IP and his WHIP lays low at 1.09 but the Whiff Rate is a StatCast frowny-face at 24% and his Velo is a 1980s-style fastball of 92 MPH average. Does any of this matter? Who's on first? I don't know. Wait, he's on third. Sorry, no Costello here but as far as Abbott goes, you best enjoy all the one-liners if he's in your lineup, though he's a prime sell-high candidate to buttress your bats.
Bonus IL Edition: Tyler Mahle SP TEX (Currently on 60-game IL)
Mahle had the biggest current gap between ERA and xERA. Tyler is sporting an ERA of 2.34 but his xERA looms at 4.18. How about Expected Weighted On-base Average? Menacing in theoretical expected .330 but living in reality at an effective .260. What's real? Currently a 2.34 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 6 wins as a pitcher for the Texas Rangers. He suppresses Hard Hit OK at 38% but the fancy stats all sort of shake their heads "No," when it comes to expected stats for Mahle. He was once a K per IP guy and those days are over and the IL is where he lives.
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