Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep-March 3, 2024

Around the League

Matt Chapman-Giants-3B

Matt Chapman signed late Friday night with the San Francisco Giants on a 3-year, $54 million deal. Chapman is coming off a down year in Toronto in which he hit .240 with 17 HR, 66 R, 54 RBI, and 4 SB in 140 GP. The power dropping off was the biggest surprise. He posted a career-low .185 ISO. Digging deeper into his underlying skills reveals that he was unlucky in terms of flyballs turning into home runs (9.9% HR/FB). He still hit the ball hard (17% Barrels and 56% Hardhit) and in the air (49% FB) but couldn't quite convert them into home runs. The bad news is that while the Giants home park plays better for right-handers it is still not a great park for hitters. Chapman is going to play every day given his defense but expecting him to have a huge bounce-back season is not likely. He's looking at a low batting average (.230-.240) with average power (24-27 HR) which makes him a league-average hitter at this point.

Tyler Glasnow-Dodgers-SP

Tyler Glasnow went 3 IP with 5 K's in his latest spring training game. Glasnow looks healthy and ready to start his first season in Los Angeles. He is currently being drafted as the 12th SP in 12-team RotoWire Online Championship drafts since February 1st. There is going to be no discount on Glasnow this year and for good reason. He is coming off 120 IP of elite production (3.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 33% K, 8% BB, and 3.08 SIERA) in 2023 and is moving to arguably the best team in baseball. One that is going to increase his chances for wins and has a track record of producing successful fantasy seasons for starting pitchers. The only concern is his health/innings limit but the Dodgers have a track record of being able to pitch their guys consistently on extra rest almost like a six-man rotation.

Cleveland Starting SS Battle

The Guardians have a battle for starting shortstop this spring. The two contenders are Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias. They both offer fantasy appeal if they get a full-time role but it will come in different ways. Rocchio has a more contact-driven approach which should result in a higher batting average with speed. He hit .280 with 7 HR, 81 R, 65 RBI, and 25 SB in 116 GP at Triple-A last year. The power disappeared because he had shown double-digit power in previous years so there is a ceiling of 10-15 HR with 25+ SB if given an everyday role. Gabriel Arias on the other hand has more power and less speed. He has struggled to hit for average the past two seasons whether that was at Triple-A or the majors. He hit the ball hard last year for the Guardians (10% Barrels and 46% Hardhit) but struggled to elevate (52% GB). He also had issues making contact (33% K) which was a result of chasing out of the zone (38% O-swing). The Guardians prefer their hitters to make contact which gives Rocchio the early head start and the favorite to land the starting job but spring training will ultimately decide the battle. Both players will be fantasy-relevant if given the starting gig so we will need to pay attention throughout spring.

Anthony Rizzo-Yankees-1B

Anthony Rizzo is completely healthy and ready to show that he is still the same player he was before the concussion he suffered last year. This is great news for the Yankees and fantasy owners this draft season. Rizzo's overall numbers for 2023 are not great (.244 AVG with 12 HR, 45 R, 41 RBI, and 0 SB). His splits pre-concussion (146 wRC+) and post-concussion (44 wRC+) are well documented. The situation in New York has set up Rizzo to be a very nice value this year in drafts. They have an improved lineup which should be able to score runs in bunches. It'll be a huge boost to have two OBP monsters (Judge and Soto) hitting in front of him in the lineup. Rizzo's power numbers will also continue to benefit from the short porch in Yankee Stadium. A healthy year likely means a return to 30+ HRs for Rizzo which will be a nice value after pick 275.

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Byron Buxton-Twins-OF

Byron Buxton is playing the field in spring training which is exactly what he and the Twins said would happen coming into the year. This is both good and bad news for his fantasy value. Buxton currently is a DH only in most formats after not playing outfield at all in 2023. He is coming off another injury-plagued season but that wasn't the only issue. Buxton struggled to hit for average (.207) because he has sold out for power (54% FB). He still hits the ball hard (15% Barrels and 46% Hardhit) but the extreme flyball approach is only going to help his power numbers and not his batting average. He did steal nine bases in 85 GP but there is no guarantee that he will continue on that pace this year given they want to keep him on the field and in the outfield. Buxton represents an even bigger risk this year because of his health and lack of production outside of home runs.

Triston McKenzie-Guardians-SP

Triston McKenzie had a normal off-season in terms of being able to work out and throw. He is on schedule and ready to go for spring training which is good news after suffering both a shoulder and elbow injury in 2023. He was only able to make four starts in 2023 and posted a 5.06 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 22% K, and 18% BB which is uncharacteristic for the right-hander. He was dominant in 2022 with a 2.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 26% K, and 6% BB across 191.1 IP. We will know more about McKenzie once we see him pitching in spring games but if he is healthy he will start to shoot up the draft boards because his price is currently quite low given his ceiling. The Guardians also have a nice track record of getting the most out of their pitchers.

Charlie Morton-Braves-SP

Charlie Morton is reaching the point in his career (40 years old) where it could all fall off a cliff. He struggled in 2023 with control (12% BB) which contributed to a 1.43 WHIP. His 4.44 SIERA was also the highest since 2009 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The issues started in the second half (3.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 25% K, and 14% B). He posted a 3.43 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 26% K, and 10% BB in the first half. One of his biggest issues is the declining effectiveness of his fastball, which has an 80 Stuff+, which is well below average. Hitters also hit .295 with a .893 OPS against his fastball. Morton still has an elite curveball which will keep him relevant when it is on but the profile is more volatile than in years past. This is starting to look more like the end of Adam Wainwright's career which is not a positive.

Mason Miller-Athletics-RP

Mason Miller made his spring debut on Friday night. He was dominant both in results (1 IP and 3 K) and also in terms of his stuff. He touched 103 mph with his fastball and hit 101 on 9 out of his 16 pitches. Stuff has never been an issue with the right-hander it has always been about health. This is why the Athletics have decided to transition him to being a reliever. The prevailing thought was that he would open the season as the team closer but manager Mark Kotsay threw cold water on that saying that he would not start the season as the closer. He wants Miller to work his way up the pecking order instead of just being given the job. This is likely just a short-term hit to his fantasy value because he is easily the most talented reliever in their bullpen and it shouldn't take long for him to move into the closer's role. The other concern is that the Athletics are likely to be one of the worst teams in the league which is going to limit total save chance. If Miller doesn't get 100% of the team's save chances that lowers his value even further because he is looking at 20 save chances at most which caps his ceiling.

Leody Taveras-Rangers-OF

Leody Taveras is penciled in as the Rangers starting centerfielder to start the 2024 season. He is expected to be flanked by two youngsters (Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford). Taveras hit .266 with 14 HR, 67 R, 67 RBI, and 14 SB in 143 GP. He showed good plate skills (6% BB and 21% K) and improved his quality of contact (7% Barrels and 42% Hardhit). Unfortunately, he doesn't have much more room to grow in terms of fantasy because he isn't going to be above-average in any one category (AVG, HR, or SB) and his counting stats are going to be limited because he is going to be stuck at the bottom of the Rangers lineup. With that being said, Taveras is still solid across the board so he has value in the right format but expecting more growth is going to lead to him being over-drafted.

Vaughn Grissom's Injury and Playing Time Ramifications

Vaughn Grissom has a groin injury and the Red Sox have shut him down. This makes it likely that he is going to start the season on the IL. Grissom was one of the winners of the offseason because he was finally going to get a chance to play every day for the Red Sox. Grissom has shown his potential in his short time in the majors (.287 AVG, 5 HR, 29 R, 27 RBI, and 5 SB in 64 career games). For a full season, he has 15 HR/15 SB upside with a good batting average. He is going to be fine long term but this opens up an opportunity for someone else. This could give someone like INF/OF Ceddanne Rafaela a chance to make the Opening Day roster. He is competing with OF Wilyer Abreu for a starting spot but also has the potential to play infield. Rafaela hit over .300 with 20 HR/36 SB between AA and AAA. However, the most likely candidate to fill the short-term void is INF Enmanuel Valdez. He hit. 266 with 6 HR/5 SB in 49 GP last year with a decent strikeout rate (25% K) and barrel% (11%). Both Rafaela and Valdez are intriguing options if they were to regular playing time but that isn't guaranteed even with this injury to Grissom. They would have to start the year on fire and force manager Alex Cora to keep them in the lineup.

Eury Perez-Marlins-SP

Eury Perez was removed from Saturday's spring training game early with a hand injury. Reports had him dealing with a cut on his right middle finger. This is not considered a serious injury but the Marlins are likely going to be cautious with their promising young starter. Perez is coming off a strong rookie season (3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 29% K, and 8% BB in 91.1 IP). The biggest question mark for Perez coming into the year is how many innings are the Marlins going to let him throw. Between Double-A and the majors last year he threw 128 IP. Pushing him near the 150 IP range is likely where the Marlins have their goal set. In today's environment, his fantasy value doesn't even take a huge hit with just 150 IP because it should result in near-elite production. It doesn't matter that he'll have slightly lower innings than the other starters. He has the skills and perfect home park to continue his ascent as one of the top pitchers in the game.

Ronald Acuna Jr.-Braves-OF

Ronald Acuna Jr. had an MRI on his knee Friday. The MRI revealed irritation in his meniscus and he is scheduled to see Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday for further evaluation. He is the same doctor who performed surgery on Acuna's torn ACL in 2021. There will be a lot of discussion about people drafting in the next couple of days about whether someone else (Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., or Fernando Tatis Jr.) should go first overall. This is odd because the prevailing thought is that Acuna is by far the best player in fantasy this year coming off one of the best seasons ever (.337 AVG, 41 HR, 149 R, 106 RBI, and 73 SB). The injury even if it requires surgery is only going to require a couple of weeks of recovery which means that he will miss very limited time. Drafting someone other than Acuna still seems like a stretch even with this injury news and it could just be rest and recovery. We will find out on Monday.