Result stats like BA, wOBA, and SLG will rarely correlate exactly to analytics measurements like xBA, xwOBA, and xSLG. When the difference is wide during a season, that can indicate that there will be a regression the following season. The change can be positive or negative, depending on which way the difference goes. The differences can explain some of what you see in the 2024 Draft Advisory Software projections compared to results from 2023. Here are some hitters that could likely see some regression.
Looking Up
Tim Anderson- SS- MIA- Anderson had a disappointing 2023, slashing .245/.286/.296 with a lone homer in 524 PAs. He is now in Miami and is likely to bounce back to a certain extent. Anderson is projected to post a .270 BA and reach double digits in homers (11) and steals (16.) He had a .250 xBA, .330 xSLG, and .279 xwOBA compared to his .260 wOBA. He's still not ranked as high as he used to be, with a 47.08 FDP, but is going to be worth more than his results in 2023.
Fernando Tatis, Jr.- SS- SD- Tatis crushed a 2-run homer yesterday, hitting it way up into the fans on the berm beyond left field. Despite posting a poor-for-him slash line of .257/.322/.449 in 2023 he is at 1.07 in ADP, with Fantistics valuing his draft position still high at 2.06. Tatis didn't get the result his underlying analytics would justify. With a wOBA of .332, his xwOBA was .368. His xBA was .282 and his xSLG was .511. For this year Tatis is projected to hit .275 with 34 homers, 30 steals, 101 runs, and 87 RBI in 564 ABs. Those are high value numbers.
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.- 1B- TOR- Guerrero took a slight detour on his path to superstardom last year. His .264/.345/.444 slash line with 26 homers in 682 PAs was down from 2022, which was itself down from 2021. Guerrero's numbers didn't reflect his underlying performance. His wOBA was .340, but his xwOBA of .374 was the second highest of his career. Guerrero had a .291 xBA and .494 xSLG. Both of those were also his second-best career marks. Guerrero is projecting to a .283/.359/.507 with 34 homers and 111 RBIs in 590 BAs. He may not be up to his 2021 values but is jumping over his 2023 results.
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Looking at a Fall
Zack Gelof- 3B- OAK- Gelof burst on the scene in 2023, slashing .267/.337/.504 with 14 homers in 300 PAs for the A's. He is off to a scorching start in the Cactus League, slashing .389/.476/.889 in 7 games. The Cactus League is not regular season MLB, though. Looking at Gelof's analytics last year, his xBA was .250 and his xSLG was .443. That's part of why his projected average for 2024 is .239 (his .331 BABIP plays into that.) Gelof's 40.7% HardHit% and 108.5 maxEV does indicate his power is real and gives him a projected 24 homers. That is likely to be where his value will sit.
Josh Naylor- 1B- CLE- Naylor slashed .308/.354/.489 last year with a .354 wOBA and 17 homers in 495 PAs. His results outpaced his underlying stats as his EV, Barrel%, and HardHIt% dipped slightly while his chase rate surged to 42.6%. Naylor had a .290 xBA, .473 xSLG, and xwOBA of .345. With a career slash line of .270/.325/.439, 2023 looks like an outlier. He is still projected to hit 22 homers and bat .277 with 10 SBs, so there is still value, but it won't be like last season.
Jared Triolo- 3B- PIT- Triolo had a successful introduction to MLB in 2023. He slashed .298/.388/.398 with 3 homers and 6 steals in 209 PAs. A .440 BABIP was a major help to Triolo, as his xBA was .250. His xSLG also was lower than his SLG, at .372. Triolo saw a significant distance between is .350 wOBA and .323 xwOBA as well. For 2024 his average is expected to drop to .254 in 407 Bas. Triolo's homer rate is projected to increase, with 10 homers while his steals aren't, with 10 as well.
- Get the News Here
As we get deeper into Spring Training, events play out that will impact the regular season. Here are some notable news items. Keep updating the Draft Advisory Software frequently to get the latest projections based on the latest activity in MLB.
Vaughn Grissom- 2B- BOS- Grissom was the key piece for Boston in the Chris Sale trade. He was projected to take a leap forward with regular playing time. With a .280/.313/.347 slash line and 5 homers in 80 PAs the future looked bright. Grissom has been beset with injuries in his first camp with the Red Sox. He has had hamstring soreness in both legs and had not appeared in the Grapefruit League yet. Then he had an MRI that revealed a groin strain. It was termed "slight," but the projection is that Grissom may not be ready for Opening Day. His future as the Red Sox second baseman will be pushed back. Grissom's ADP had been late at 32.02 but Fantistics has his draft position value at 46.05. Emanuel Valdez is likely going to man 2B for Boston until and if Grissom is ready to play.
Justin Verlander- P- HOU- Verlander's chances of being ready on Opening Day rose yesterday. He threw a bullpen session of 60 pitches. It might be tough, but there is still a chance he can progress to live BP and Grapefruit League starts to be ready by the beginning of the season, at least for some time in the first week. Verlander is projected to post a 3.80 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and strikeout 155 batters. His ADP is likely reflecting his excellent history as it comes in at 12.07. Fantistics has him lower at 22.08.
John Means- P- BAL- The Orioles that Means would be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and build off his 2.66 ERA in 4 starts last September. On Saturday manager Brandon Hyde said that Means would not be appearing in any Grapefruit League games, so he will not be ready for the start of the regular season. The best-case scenario right now is for Means to return sometime in April, but his injury updates will need to be watched closely. He won't be trying to replicate his 3.60-ish ERA that he posted in 2019 and 2021 in the near term.
Alek Manoah- P- TOR- Manoah was scratched from yesterday's scheduled start, suffering from shoulder soreness. He hit 3 batters in 1.2 IP in his Grapefruit League debut and didn't feel as good as he should have in preparing for his next start. Manoah fell hard last season, with his ERA blowing up to 5.87 from 2.24 in 2023. His FIP was 6.01, xERA 6.01 and xFIP 5.85, so that ERA reflected his performance. Manoah's chase rate fell from 34.7% to 29.2% and SwStr% from 11.2% to 8.9%. Toronto was hoping for a bounce back but now injuries are coming into play. MRIs have not revealed any structural issues, but Manoah's poor performance in 20223 has morphed into nonperformance in the spring of 2024.
Simeon Woods Richardson- P- MIN- Woods Richardson showed an average fastball velocity of 93.1 in his start Monday against the Yankees (with a top of 94.5) , notching a strikeout of Juan Soto in his 17-pitch outing. Woods Richardson followed up with 2 scoreless innings against the Rays yesterday. He has not allowed a run in his 3 IP of Grapefruit League play. Woods Richardson had been a top prospect before his velocity dropped to the 90-91 range. He has changed his delivery, lowering his arm slot. We're dealing with a very small sample size, but Woods Richardson has distinct sleeper potential and bears watching as Spring training progresses.
Ian Happ- OF- CHC- Happ suffered a hamstring strain on Thursday. It will keep him out of Cactus League games until late this month, at least. The hope is that Happ will get enough late work in to have him ready for Opening Day. Mile Mastrobuoni got the start in LF and is first in line behind Happ.
Wade Miley- P- MIL- The 37-year-old Miley was expected to be the #2 starter for the Brewers but has experienced shoulder soreness. He hasn't made any Cactus League appearances and likely won't for some time. Manager Pat Murphy put Miley's chances at being ready for Opening Day at 50%. His projections are not at the level of a pitcher that is in the upper end of the rotation. Miley is projected to post a 5.02 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and to strike out 61 batters in 116 IP. Despite his high-profile situation, he is not worth that much attention.
David Bednar- RP- PIT- Bednar is working through lat tightness that has kept him out of the Grapefruit League so far. Last year Bednar was elite, appearing in 66 games and earning 39 saves with a 2.00 ERA and 10.69 K/9. He is projected to save 37 games this season with a 2.90 ERA and striking out 76 batters in 65 IPs. There is no word as to when Bednar will face live hitters or see game action. If the situation is prolonged, then Aroldis Chapman could be in the mix for the closer spot.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto- P- LAD- Manager Dave Roberts said that Yamamoto will be starting every 6-8 days. His second start will come Wednesday, a week after his debut. It was implied that this would carry over into the regular season. The Dodgers will open the season in Seoul and their home opener will be 8 days later, so it is within the realm of possibilities that Yamamoto will start both openers. Sticking with this pattern in the regular season will limit the overall number of starts Yamamoto makes. It will make it worth paying attention to by his owners in both daily and weekly roster leagues. With a projected 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 197 Ks in 176 IP Yamamoto will be worth having.
