Stolen Bases Threats: Beyond the Top 10
In 2023, MLB base runners had the highest stolen base success rates of all time at 80.2%. Over 50 players topped 20 SBs and 18 swiped 30 or more. That puts available SB threats near 70 players for 2024, as opposed to the usual 30 or so in pre 2023 MLB. Here's a rundown of 5 players whose SB skills may have peaked and 10 who could continue to steal as many or more in 2024.
Caught Stealing: SB Skils Peaked?
Randy Arozerana
Despite his propensity to run and make things happen, Arozarena was caught 31% of the time, well below the 20% caught rate for MLB in 2023. Fortunately, his OBP of .364 and his 28.4 MPH sprint speed point to continued opportunity to swipe bags. His Home to 1B sprint speed remains elite at 4.25 seconds. Randy's bound to play great baseball in reality, but be sure to draft for his overall statline and don't count on 30 SB for Randy in 2024.
Dalton Varsho
Yes, he's had catcher eligibility, making Varsho unicorn-ish with his 20 SB ability. Catcher eligibility should vanish for Varsho in 2024, and his 70% SB success rate dips well below league-average. Difficult to say if Dalton continues to get a green light in Toronto, but even if he does, the caught-stealing numbers limit his overall appeal as just about anyone with 500 ABs can steal 16, as did Varsho in 2023. His sprint speed of 28.1 MPH calls for optimism, but there's no reason to reach for him anymore among a crowded field of OF that can steal 20.
Whit Merrifield
Wither Whit? Merrifield makes a fantastic Philadelphia free agent pick-up. He's on a better team, which should mean more runs scored, but the bad news is he can't run wild, lest he take the bats out of the hands of all the Philly muscle. He was caught 10 of 36 times in 2023, despite his still robust 28.8 MPH sprint speed. However, as age 36 creeps in, Merrfiled merits a draft pick, just don't expect 30 SBs.
Jeremy Pena
Pena is a mixed-bag with a mediocre OBP of .324, caught stealing 9 of 22 times in 2023 but with an elite 29.4 MPH sprint speed. Pena has potential, both to grow as a player and thief, but the numbers say don't reach for SBs with Jeremy. Monitor his development as a young player in a good lineup, as this could be a season of stepping forward, but the SBs don't appear likely to grow.
Myles Straw
You knew his name was coming, so go ahead and remind yourself: you can't steal first base, etc. The song remains the same for Myles Straw: miniscule OBP (.301) and despite over 500 PAs in 2023, he stole 20 in 26 attempts, netting an under league average of 77% success rate. His stil-elite sprint speed of 29.2 MPH and his otherworldly 4.1 HP to 1B burst can't conjure a better eye for BB or bigger barrels. Stray from Straw and you'll be OK. If you need SBs midseason, shop the waiver wire, just look over your shoulder baby, he'll be there.
Should SB As Much or More in 2024
Christian Yelich
Despite a balky back acting up midseason, Yelich stole 28 in 31 attempts for a fantastic 90% success rate in 2023. Yelich's OBP of .370 ensures his opportunities should continue and the Brewer lack of punch in the lineup means he's likely to take the extra bag when he can. His sprint speed remains a fine 28.1 MPH and his HP to 1B speed is well above average at 4.35. His great eye and ability to get on base should keep his baseline SB total above 20 for 2024.
Bryson Stott
I'm bullish on Bryson, who stole 31 in 34 tries in 2023, despite a pedestrian OBP of .329. If Stott continues to make strides at the plate,further reducing his strikeout rate by 18% as he did from 2022-2023, his opportunities to swipe should continue. His 91% success rate and elite 28.8 MPH sprint speed gives him a strong floor for 22 SBs in 2024. Stash Stott as your MI in Mixed Leagues in the mid-late rounds and you'll be stacking SBs. Stott is a great pick in NL Only for MI and could fetch $25 in auction for his 40 SB potential.
Xander Bogarts
According to new Padre skip (and former Tipper Gore fanclub member) Mike Shildt, Bogarts will slide over to the keystone for 2024. Xander picked his spots wisely in 2023, taking 19 bags in 21 attempts for a tasty 90% success rate on the stolen base front. His .350 OBP and long track record of health and productivity point to extended time on basepaths. The bags may come slowly, but over the course of a full season, if Xander continues to steal with such discretion, 20 SBs is a strong possibility, to go along with his usual solid BA and runs scored, making him a 2B to target in mid-early rounds in any league.
Ozzie Albies
Perhaps the finest 2B in all of MLB for his power potential, Albies was shrewd as can be on the basepaths in 2023, with 13 in 14 attempts. As Acuna strives to reveal his health, Albies may increase his attention on SBs in 2024, as his elite 4.2 seconds HP to 1B speed can attest. You may not select Albies for SBs, but his potential to nap 20 without all the annoying CS numbers that come with lackluster runners, makes Ozzie worth drafting early and often.
Javier Baez
Yes, he's still in the league. Despite his famously minimal OBP of .267 and inability to walk (4.4 BB%), Baez was 100% successful stealing bases in 2024. He went a perfect 12 for 12, even though he couldn't get on base to save his job. Monitor Javier for signs of improvement with on-base and consider him a waiver-wire dandy for SBs in head-to-head leagues and potentially worth employing in favorable matchups in AL-Only leagues with MI slots, if only for the possibility of 20 SBs, should he discover the route from HP to 1B at 4.4 seconds (or at any speed at all).
Lars Nootbarr
Make sure to monitor his rib injury, which he says is "getting better." Nootbar, noted for his OBP of .367 buoyed by a strong 14.3% BB rate, was also a noted thief in 2023, succeeding in 11 of 12 SB attempts A solid sprint speed of 27.8 MPH and a HP to 1B in just 4.3 seconds, theirs strong potential for Lars to land more steals in 2024. HIs strong batting eye and fleet feet point to a strong floor of 15 SBs in 2024, making Nootbar notable for NL-Only drafts, especially in OBP leagues. Lars is a nice late pick in mixed-leagues for matchups and as a bench option capable of on-base and taking the occasional base.
Willi Castro
Beneficiary of a solid OBP boost from .268 to .339 from '22 to '23, Castro stole 33 in 38 tries. Throw in an 8.3 BB% and multi-position eligibility makes him a sneaky source for SBs that should be around late in drafts. In AL-Only, Castro could be a great stash to plug and play in both OF and CI. This spring Castro has played some SS, adding to an already intriguing line of eligibility. His elite HP to 1B speed tops out at 4.28 seconds, so some of those pesky ground balls will be hits, which could in turn be cashed in for SBs.
José Caballero
Taking Tampa's starting shortstop job in 2024, Caballero can Cash in on his 26 out of 29 SBs in 2023 with a better team and more potential to score runs. This spring, Ray skipper Cash has turned hitting coach Chat Mottola loose on Caballero, encouraging a "letting loose" of the power, so perhaps he can reach for 10 HR to go along with a solid floor of 20 SBs in 2024. Our projections like his OBP to exceed .350 and his 4.2 HP to 1B elite feet ensure he'll beat out his share of grounders, elicit two disengagements and take off for second.
Steve Kwan
Kwan can steal with discretion, as evident by 21 of 25 triumphant thefts in 2023. His batted ball skills and K rate are well-established with a miniscule 10.4% along with a solid OBP of .340, keeping Kwan in a strong SB territory heading into 2024. His .280 batting average floor is comforting for 5x5 roto, as Kwan can contribute 3 category love without the HRs and RBIs. Fantastic 4.2 HP to 1B sprint time suggests he'll get on base on the occasional slow roller and even the rare bunt (last sighted in the wild in 2002).
Jarren Duran
Duran has spent spring roaming all three outfield spots for the beantown nine, ensuring that he remains indispensable for as long as he's healthy. Duran's daring on the basepaths in 2024 led to 24 of 26 successful swipes despite missing six weeks due to a toe injury. Top shelf sprint speed of 29.5 MPH means Jarren just jets from HP to 1B in 4.2 seconds. Our projections like his ability to mash off the monster for 40 plus doubles and continue to steal 25 plus bases with 15 HR a possibility as well. Just draft Jarren Duran in AL-Only for stuffed statlines, and prioritize him mid-late in Mixed League as a nice third OF or bench help.
