Cub 3B Battle
Christopher Morel
Morel's light-tower power (and propensity for shedding clothing) is well-known. His sudden Spring Training slide to 3B was endorsed by Northside Counsell himself, who said the Cubs 3B situation is "not going to be solved in spring training" but he's been "pleased with Morel's defensive work." Here's what we know: his 26 HRs in only 429 plate appearances in '23 means Morel must get ABs. His 16% Barrel Rate, HardHit rate of 50% and 91 average VELO says the pop is legit. His arm is also a freaking cannon. Our projections say 30 HR is possible with 500 ABs, which will play at any position, 3B or otherwise. Watch his positional eligibility, but draft confidently for the dingers in any league and hope for 10 SBs and good health. In NL Only, get him before he slips too far in the mid-late rounds.
Michael Busch
For power, the Cubs can say: we have Busch, even though they've been long associated with Budweiser. In 2023, Busch banged 27 HR in AAA in the LAD system and showed patience with a 14% BB rate and an eye-popping .431 OBP. He's 26 years old and moving to a new team with logjams at CI and he may just force his way into playing time if the power continues. Our projections say double-digit HR is possible with 300 PAs, so monitor his positional eligibility and depth chart. Counsel likes to play the hot hand and let players ride the shuttle between the minors and the bigs, so it could be a tough year to monitor Busch; if he's traded or if injuries strike, his keen eye and potential power could be shrewd drafter's gold.
Patrick Wisdom
Wisdom's quadricep has slowed him this spring, but he took at-bats in a simulated game March 5th as he works into playing shape. There's Wisdom indeed in having a 20% Barrel rate like Patrick did in 2023. Speaking words of Wisdom, his 22% Elevation supports his ability to injure baseballs, but at what cost? 37% K Rate and OBP south of 0.300 gives words to the wise: pay for HR and pay for everything else. He's unlikely to win the 3B spot but his occasional HR barrages make Wisdom an intriguing play and draftable in Head-to-head leagues. In NL-Only, pass on Patrick till mid-rounds (keeping an eye on health) but don't sleep on the 20 plus HR we project with 300 plus ABs. In 12-Team Mixed Leagues, Wisdom is a hot-hand waiver wire dandy to be played only when you find yourself in times of trouble.
Nick Madrigal
He played 3B on March 3rd in spring training, but the Cubbies seem to be rotating daily at the hot corner. Nicky Two-strikes loves to make contact: his Contact Rate of 92% is big-time and if batting average counts in your league, Madrigal is your man. Throw in double-digit SB potential (he stole 10 in 2023) along with elite 9.4% Whiff rate, and he could have value as a stopgap 2B or 3B (if he gains eligibility). However, he's a late dart in NL-Only and waiver wire fodder in Mixed Leagues. If he gets traded and gains everyday ABs, his value could escalate due to BA floor and SB potential.
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Brewer 3B Battle
Tyler Black
Celebrate .420. That's Tyler's OBP over 2 levels of minor league play last season. The Brewers would love to get his primo patience to the plate in 2024, but Black's lack of defensive chops may make him a man without a position. He's been tried at 3B in spring training (March 3rd) but everyone from Owen Miller to Bob Uecker has manned the corner for the Crew this spring. Black has 60 speed and great command of the strike zone. Our 2024 projections are bullish on Black, anticipating double-digit HR and SB if given around 400 ABs. He's a great last stash in NL-Only and a waiver wire to watch in mixed leagues to fortify your bench.
Sal Frelick
Spring training experimentation has led the Brew Crew to recruit Frelick to try out 3B. During the 3/6 Split Squad matchup, Frelick manned the hot corner, so this could be an actual thing. His freshman '23 year contact rate (87%) and ability to draw walks (13%) combined with a low 14.6% whiff rate to supply Salvatore with a solid floor for his sophomore season. His positional versatility, buoyed by exceptional athleticism and a daredevil desire to catch anything that moves means he will play, it's just a matter of where and how often. Currently, Frelick does not profile as a realistic 3B option on the reg, but he could provide decent bench help if he gains multiple eligibility in NL-Only for OBP, steals and runs. If your league rewards smashing into a wall or net, you better call Sal.
Joey Ortiz
Fortified by a 40% sweet spot rate in 2023 in limited time in the bigs (34 PAs) and outstanding OBP in AAA (0.378) and an OPS of .885, the reason to believe in Ortiz. His defensive prowess powers his possibility for playing time and gives him an inside track to the Brewer hot corner, if they don't try to slot him in at 2B. Ortiz started at 3B on March 5th, but it appears the Crew is trying just about everyone but Bernie Brewer at the hottest of corners. His glove alone should merit enough time at 3B to gain eligibility, but unless something clicks offensively, Ortiz is a waiver wire watch for both NL Only and Mixed Leagues.
Cub 5th SP in Rotation Battle
Javier Assad
GB Rate of 47% and a nifty 1.23 WHIP in 2023 may lead one to assume Assad may ascend to the Cub rotation for the fifth spot. The horizontal movement of his slider is considered great at 13.4 inches of break. Though he K'd just a respectable 94 in 109 IP in 2023, recall that the Cubs thrive on soft contact hoovered up by their elite defense (see Hendricks, Kyle, et al.). Assad profiles as a possible draftable SP, worth snagging late in NL-Only for his HR suppressing GB rate, just don't expect his 2023 WHIP to hold.
Jordan Wicks
Wicks is another groundskeeper's dream for the Northsiders, highlighted by his 45% GB rate over 120 IP among all levels of play last year, culminating in 34 IP for the Cubs. Surrounded by gold gloves up the middle, Wicks may find his way into the rotation. The LHP features a 4-pitch mix with decent vertical movement on his curveball with 57.8 inches of drop and changeup with 35.7 inches of drop. Wicks makes an enticing entry to the Cub rotation in reality, and serviceable for fantasy pitching ratios. Our projections like his durability (171 IP for 2024) so Wicks may be a winner for IP leagues. Wicks profiles as waiver wire watch for 12-Team Mixed leagues and draftable in NL-Only later rounds.
Drew Smyly
Smyly induces soft contact (87 MPH average exit VELO) and a meager 34% hard hit rate. As long his hitters continue to chase at 32% rate, Smyly will see the occasional start, but don't count on Counsell tabbing Drew to be SP5. Despite his botched perfecto in 2023, his WHIP bloated to an unseemly 1.43. His just above league average SwStr%: 11% bodes well for repeating a nearly 9 K/9 and our projections suggest his WHIP could return to the 1.30 range and a slightly less unseemly ERA in the 4.40 range. If these numbers excite you, you must be holding the last pick in your NL-Only league. Smyly is a head-to-head league name to monitor and waiver wire streamer for Mixed Leagues.
Hayden Wesneski
Beyond his recent entry into the Rich Hill "looking somehow always hungover" pitcher hall of fame, Wesneski's 2023 MLb Savant page is as blue as Pabst Blue Ribbon...that is to say, unimpressive. Hayden's sweeper, however, is impressive with 17.4 inches of horizontal break. His 40% Groundball rate is encouraging and his workmanlike 9 K/9 is rosterable in NL-Only leagues but he's strictly waiver-watchable in Mixed Leagues. Watch for injuries to Cub SPs and then monitor his progress. Our projections support his continued stagnance, so target him when literally all else fails.
Brewer SP Battle
Joe Ross
With Burnes gone, Woodruff out for '24 and Wade Miley questionable for Opening Day, Ross may have an opening to a rotation spot, according to new Brewer skip (and irrepressible jokester) Pat Murphy. If a perpetually injured former first round pick strikes your fancy, Joe is your huckleberry. His last season was 2021 and his GB Rate of 43% was good then, but who knows what he has these days. Ross is a SP to monitor for matchup possibilities in head to head leagues and NL-Only (keep an eye on Miley and Brewer transactions).
Aaron Ashby
Much like Linus & The Great Pumpkin, the writer of this profile has an irrational, once-a-season belief in Ashby as a LHP Starting pitcher. Reasons to believe: 57.4% groundball rate, a 10.7 K/9 over 140 IP in the bigs and 59 inches of drop on his curveball. He's locked up on a team-friendly deal through 2027, so the pressure is off for him to be Cy Young, but his zero pitches in 2023 point to numerous question marks. While the Crew has yet to state their intentions for his usage, our projections like Ashby as a SP, brimming with optimism at 155 Ks over 139 IP. Looks like I'm not the only Linus waiting on the Great Pumpkin. If Ashby gets a rotation spot and if his health holds up, he could be an absolute steal. I'd snag him with a last pick in 12-Team mixed leagues and reach in mid-late rounds in NL-Only if he gains a rotation spot. Good grief, I said "if".
Robert Gasser
A lynchpin in the notorious Hader trade of '22, Gasser has delivered over 11 K/9 over 250 IP across three levels of minor league play. He profiles as a ground ball heavy LHP with GB% hovering between 33 and 43% throughout his minor league career. He'll be 25 this year, so the Brewers will have to play the Hader trade card soon to reveal if he was worth the deal. That's a lot of pressure for a young pitcher, so the Crew is likely to use him in favorable, piggy back type situations in which he avoids righties and long outings. Our projections suggest he could be a boon in IP leagues, but his low velocity (max 93 MPH) and lack of pure wipeout pitch could leave Gasser with less than a full tank of fantasy hope. NL-Only leagues should keep an eye on the Brewer rotation and the waiver wire for Gasser.
Jakob Junis
Brewer manager and Uecker understudy Pat Murphy doesn't seem to know what to do with Junis: "Maybe he'll be in the same role he was in with the Giants." Marching orders will arrive soon enough from Matt Arnold and the front office, but until then, we can speculate that Junis joins the rotation, at least until Miley returns. Junis did some nice things in 2023, SwStr of 11% and a GB Rate of 43%, backed by a solid 96 Ks over 88 IP in a swingman role in SF. The Brewers invested 7 Million in the man and may expect actual starting pitching and our projections point to similar K numbers to 2023 but with a spike in ERA, in part due to hitter-friendly Milwaukee home vs. the heavy air of SF. If Junis joins the rotation, he's worth rostering in Mixed Leagues, NL-Only and head to head leagues for Ks and reasonable WHIP, just don't expect a lot of starts.
