Bryce Miller, SP, Mariners
Bryce Miller showed off a new splitter in his recent spring training start. Already featuring a six-pitch mix, adding a splitter might not seem like a big deal. However, it may be exactly what he needs since his secondary offerings were underwhelming in 2023. He actually got the most whiffs on his fastball (27.1%), followed by his slider (24.4%), changeup (17.9%), and sweeper (17.4%). Miller had elite control (4.8% BB rate) but got hit hard (90.7 mph average exit velocity, 10.9% barrel rate, 42.1% hard-hit rate). If his splitter can get more reliable whiffs than his other secondaries, it should net him more strikeouts and allow less hard contact. Miller is a great upside pick to round out your rotation and should be drafted somewhere in the SP50-SP60 range.
Maikel Garcia, 3B, Royals
Maikel Garcia has a very similar profile to Ke'Bryan Hayes. He has a ton of raw power (91.8 mph average exit velocity, 50.6% hard-hit rate), but he hits the ball on the ground too much to capitalize. His 27.4% fly ball rate in 2023 was the 7th-lowest among qualified hitters, and his ground ball rate was 48.0%. The good news for Garcia is that he hit line drives at the 7th-highest rate, 24.6%. A slight swing adjustment could take him from the 4 home runs he hit last season to hitting 15+ in 2024. The good news is that even if he doesn't find his power stroke, he will still be a solid contributor in runs, stolen bases, and batting average. In 2023, he hit .272 with 59 R and 23 SB in 123 games. He is a great upside pick in the later rounds of deeper leagues to fill a CI spot.
Royce Lewis, 3B, Twins
Royce Lewis finally got the chance to show off his skills in 2023 after recovering from a second torn ACL. He slashed .309/.372/.548 with 36 R, 15 HR, 52 RBI, and 6 SB in only 58 games. His 90.2 mph average exit velocity, .481 xSLG, and 11.7% barrel rate were all well above average. His 114.0 mph max exit velocity was also in the 90th percentile. He even added four more home runs in the playoffs that don't appear in his stat line. The main concern about Lewis is his health, and he should easily return value on draft day if he can stay on the field. A very realistic expectation is a .280+ average with 30 home runs and 15 stolen bases, but he has the upside to exceed that. His current ADP makes him a 5th-round pick, which is fair for someone who could end up in the first-round discussion for 2025.
Matt McLain, 2B/SS, Reds
Matt McLain had a breakout rookie season out of nowhere in 2023, slashing .290/.357/.507 with 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 89 games. However, his expected stats show that he may have gotten lucky. His .256 xBA and .436 xSLG are much worse than his actual production, and his 28.5% K rate is concerning. Players can offset a high strikeout rate by hitting the ball exceptionally hard when they do get the ball in play, but McLain doesn't do that either. His 89.3 mph average exit velocity and 42.4% hard-hit rate are underwhelming for someone who had a 30 HR pace for 162 games. I don't expect McLain to have a bad season and still view him as a top 6 2B. However, his current ADP of 66th overall is too high, and I'd rather wait to draft guys like Ketel Marte, Bryson Stott, or Andres Gimenez 4+ rounds later.
Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B, Reds
Jeimer Candelario signed a 3-year, $45 million contract with the Reds this offseason, which is great for his fantasy value. He totaled 77 R, 22 HR, and 70 RBI in 2023, and all of those numbers should increase now that he is playing in one of the best offensive environments in baseball. Nick Castellanos, another player who ended up on the Reds after a long stint in Detroit, saw his home run output increase from the mid-20s to 34 in his first season with the Reds. Candelario has a shot at 25 HR and 160 R+RBI, which is a steal for a CI spot going in the very late rounds of drafts.
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Cubs
Cody Bellinger signed a 3-year, $80 million contract with the Cubs. Returning to Chicago is good for his fantasy value, where he hopes to repeat his 2023 production. After years of being one of the worst hitters in the league, he finally showed glimpses of his MVP upside, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 95 R, 26 HR, 97 RBI, and 20 SB. However, his underlying metrics showed that he may not have improved much. His 87.9 mph average exit velocity, 6.1% barrel rate, and 31.4% hard-hit rate were all underwhelming, and actually worse than what he did in 2022. Additionally, he had a .268 xBA and .434 xSLG which were much worse than the .307 BA and .525 SLG that he actually produced. Bellinger has always been the type of player to overperform his expected stats, and returning to Chicago makes me feel better about his potential to keep this up, but there is certainly risk. Outfield is one of the shallowest positions in fantasy, so I still trust him as a top 15 OF, just don't expect potential MVP-caliber numbers.
Josh Lowe, OF, Rays
Josh Lowe has been shut down for the next six days due to hip inflammation. He should still be ready in plenty of time for Opening Day. The outfielder is coming off of a breakout 2023 season where he hit for a .275 average with 20 home runs and 32 stolen bases. He doesn't hit the ball very hard but makes up for it with an above-average 11.0% barrel rate and 36.2% sweet-spot percentage. He stole 32 of the 35 stolen bases he attempted, showing that he is a smart baserunner with a great 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 24.8% K rate and 6.2% BB rate show he does need some improvement with plate discipline, but there's no reason to think he won't repeat his all-around contributions in 2024. Hitting in the top half of the Rays lineups, he should tally plenty of runs and RBI, along with being a good bet for 25 HR and 30 SB.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Dodgers
Teoscar Hernandez signed a one-year, $23.5 million contract with the Dodgers this offseason. The outfielder is coming off of a 2023 season where he hit .258 with 70 runs, 26 home runs, and 93 RBI. He still hit the ball hard, with a 91.3 mph average exit velocity and 49.4% hard-hit rate, but those numbers were low for his standards. In 2022 he was in the top 5 percent in the league for xSLG, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. So what happened? His already bad plate discipline got even worse, displayed by his 35.2% chase rate, 35.8% whiff rate, 31.1% K rate, and 5.6% BB rate. Hernandez recently stated that he had problems seeing the ball in his new home park, T-Mobile Park, and those claims appear to be true. He slashed just .217/.263/.380 at home, but looked like his usual self on the road where he hit .295/.344/.486. Now, he gets to hit in a stacked Dodgers lineup behind Mookie Betts, Freddie, and Shohei Ohtani. He has huge bounce-back potential for 2024 and should be drafted as a top-25 outfielder.
Cole Irvin, SP, Orioles
Cole Irvin showed increased velocity in all of his pitches during a recent spring training start. All of his pitches were up 1-2 mph, with his fastball topping out at 95.9 mph, the fastest of his career. He routinely sat close to 92 mph in 2023. Irvin has never been an above-average pitcher for fantasy purposes, but he was at least useful back in 2022 when he put up a 3.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 181 innings. The Orioles ballpark is also a favorable place to pitch, as the deep left-field fence takes away a lot of potential home runs. Don't expect Irvin to turn into an ace, but with increased velocity, he could be a useful pick for one of your last bench spots in deeper leagues.
Cristopher Sanchez, SP, Phillies
Cristopher Sanchez has been sitting 93-95 mph on his sinker this spring, compared to 91-93 last season. He is coming off of a great 2023 season where he pitched to a 3.44 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 96 strikeouts in 99 innings pitched. He had a 98th percentile BB rate (4.0%), 97th percentile chase rate (34.8%), and 95th percentile ground ball rate (57.7%). His K rate was a middling 24.2%, but an increase in velocity could help him get more whiffs. Either way, he figures to put up a respectable ERA and WHIP and should get plenty of wins thanks to the Phillies' offense. He is currently being drafted as the 84th SP on average, but I expect him to be a top-50 SP for fantasy in 2024.
Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
Jackson Chourio signed an 8-year, $82 million contract with the Brewers this offseason. He looked like a future superstar for fantasy in the minors last year, where he hit 22 home runs and stole 44 bases. The power/speed combo draws comparisons to guys like Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt, and Corbin Carroll who are all being drafted within the first 6 overall picks this season. The biggest concern with prospects is playing time, but the Brewers clearly think he is ready for the opening-day roster since they signed him to that contract. He is currently being drafted as the 35th-best outfielder, but expect that ADP to rise once he is officially named the opening-day starter. Chourio has a good chance to finish as a top-25 OF and is a great mid-round pick with potential league-winning upside.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers
Wyatt Langford breezed through the minor leagues last season after being drafted 4th overall in the 2023 draft. In just 44 games he climbed from rookie ball to AAA, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases. Nothing seemed ready to stop him, as he dominated AA and AAA just as much as the lower levels. The biggest question regarding Langford is his playing time. The Rangers outfield currently features Adolis Garcia, Leody Taveras, and Evan Carter, with Travis Jankowski as a backup. Langford's defense is a step behind his offense, and there are rumors that the Rangers wouldn't want him to be their full-time DH. They could start Langford in the minors until he improves on defense, but only time will tell. He is currently being drafted as the 43rd outfielder off the board, but that could drastically rise if he has a big spring training. If Langford does manage to make the opening day roster, he has a legitimate shot to finish as a top-20 fantasy outfielder and would be the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year.
Bailey Ober, SP, Twins
Bailey Ober had a strong 2023, posting a 3.43 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 146 strikeouts in 144.1 innings pitched. He has elite control (5.0% BB rate) and great secondaries. His changeup, which he threw 28% of the time, allowed an xwOBA of just .263 and had a 29.8% whiff rate. He has dealt with injuries in the past and didn't even start the year in the Twins rotation last season, so he should be able to turn in his best year yet in 2024. He is a solid top 45 SP for fantasy.
Seiya Suzuki, OF, Cubs
Seiya Suzuki finished 2023 with a .285/.357/.485 slash line with 72 R, 20 HR, 32 RBI, and 6 SB. Those are respectable numbers, but they don't show how dominant of a player he was in the second half. After the All-Star break, he hit .313/.372/.566 with 13 home runs. He has a great eye at the plate, only chasing 19.8% of the pitches thrown out of the zone. His 48% hard-hit rate, 91.4 mph average exit velocity, and are all well above the league average. Even though he only stole six bases last year, his 79th-percentile sprint speed shows that he could have potential for more. He should have plenty of opportunities to score and drive in runs hitting in the middle of the Cubs' lineup and will be a fantasy standout in batting average. Add in the potential for 25+ home runs and 10 SB, and he looks like a solid top 25 OF option.
Junior Caminero, 3B/SS, Rays
Junior Caminero was one of the most dominant minor league hitters last season before being called up for a brief seven-game stint in the majors at the end of the year. In the minors, he hit for a .324 batting average with 85 runs, 31 home runs, and 94 RBI. He is currently ranked as the 4th best prospect according to mlb.com, for good reason. The only problem is that the Rays traded for Jose Caballero and signed Amed Rosario, making it unlikely that Caminero makes the opening day roster. Still, he is showing off his power in spring training and it shouldn't be long into the season before he forces the Rays to promote him. I would bet he is up in the majors before the end of April, and is worth stashing on your bench as a late-round pick. He could crack the top 12 3B this year for fantasy if he isn't stuck in the minor leagues for too long.
