We're now less than three weeks away from Opening Day (less than two weeks away from the Seoul opener for the Dodgers and Padres.) Rosters are taking shape. Injuries are projecting into impact on the season. Time is getting shorter for remaining free agents to sign and get enough work to be ready for the start of the season. As drafts are taking place it's critical to keep up to date with the Draft Advisory Software projections and their updates.
Blake Snell- P- Last year's NL Cy Young winner is still not in a camp. Of his reported suitors (Giants, Phillies, Yankees, and Angels) his favorite is supposedly the Angels. Of the four teams, California will likely have the most negative impact on the win column for Snell. His value will vary depending on his landing spot. Right now Snell is projected to throw 175 IP and post a 3.40 ERA with 213 Ks. The longer he stays unsigned the lower those projections will go.
J. D. Martinez- DH- Martinez slugged 33 homers and slashed .271/.321/.572 with the Dodgers in 2023 in 479 PAs. He is still looking for a home in 2024. The Marlins reportedly have been talking with Martinez. He would fill a DH hole that opened when Jorge Soler signed with the Giants. There has been some speculation that there really isn't a fit because Miami prefers to go with a DH by committee. If that were the case, however, there would be no reason for them to talk with Martinez. A signing soon would help Martinez get to his projected 27 homers in 2024.
J. D Davis- 3B- SF- Davis has reportedly been waived by the Giants. His spot on the roster was taken up by free agent signing Matt Chapman. Davis will undoubtedly find another team. The question will be how soon. He could be claimed as his $6.9 million salary is not out of line for a player who hit 18 homers in 546 PAs in 2023. Davis had an EV of 91.1 and HardHIt% of 44.3%.
Blake Treinen- RP- LAD- Treinen missed all of 2023 after throwing only 3 IP in 2022 before suffering a tear in his shoulder capsule. Treinen threw another 2 IP in September before undergoing labrum and rotator cuff surgery after the season. Last year Treinen pitched a total of 2.1 IP in minor league rehab. He was making headway in coming back and then he was hit in the ribs by a comebacker in yesterday's game. Before the injuries beset him Treinen was valuable in leagues that count holds. In 2021 he recorded 32 of them. If Treinen's latest injury is minor, then he has a good shot at being a solid contributor with an elite team.
Oswald Peraza- SS- NYY- Not long ago Peraza was a prime prospect. Then he was passed in the Yankees hierarchy by Anthony Volpe. Peraza split time between the Yankees and AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He posted a solid .268/.357/.479 slash line with 14 homers in 300 AAA PAs, with a 9.7% BB% and 18.3% K%. When with the Yankees, though, Peraza only hit 2 homers in 191 PAs and slashed 0191/0267/.272. He was projected to hit 11 homers in limited playing time of 260 ABs this season. That is in doubt now as Peraza was diagnosed with a shoulder strain. It will not require surgery but he will be out 6-8 weeks. Peraza's best chance to become fantasy relevant is for him to be part of a trade, but that isn't going to happen any time soon.
Sean Manaea- P- NYM- Manaea has had very different outings in his two Grapefruit League starts. In his first one he exhibited strong control, throwing 41 of 56 pitches for strikes and walking no one while striking out 3. However, Manaea gave up 3 runs on 7 hits in 2.2 UP. Yesterday he threw 4 shutout IP and only allowed 2 hits. Manaea struck out 5, so that stayed strong and he hit 95 mph with his fastball. His control was not as sharp as before, as he allowed 3 walks and threw only 35 of 61 pitches for strikes. Manaea is getting stretched out and is expected to throw 75 pitches in his next outing. He posted a 4.44 ERA in 2023 but had a 4.01 xFIP. Manaea is projected to have a 4.08 ERA across 152 IP and strike out 145 batters. Watch how his control plays out over the rest of the spring as he rounds into regular season shape.
Jameson Taillon- P- CHC- Taillon finished strong in 2023, throwing quality starts in 9 of his last 19 starts and had 5 other outings where he tossed between 4 and 5.2 IP and allowed 3 ERs or fewer. His 2024 spring has not been as promising. Taillon hasn't made a Cactus League start and his scheduled debut yesterday was scratched due to back tightness. It flared up 10 pitches into his warm up. Taillon had a 4.84 overall ERA in 2023, but a 4.49 xFIP. He is projected to post a 4.42 ERA this season. Taillon will need to get past his back problems to get enough starts to get to his projected 170 IP.
Emmett Sheehan- P- LAD- Sheehan will start the season on the IL. Shoulder soreness has prevented him from throwing to live hitters this spring and he is not close to getting ready for the season. Sheehan went 4-1 in 11 starts (13 games overall) in 2023 and was projected to post a 4.19 ERA and strike out 192 batters in 180 IP this season. He was expected to win the 5th starter spot for the Dodgers. Now there are a number of candidates, including Gavin Stone, Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove, and Kyle Hurt vying for that last rotation spot. The winner of the competition should see a boost in their value.
Michael King- P- SD- King was a key part of the return the Padres got for Juan Soto. He sees a big jump in his fantasy value as he will slot into a full time rotation slot in San Diego. King is projected to post a 3.86 ERA with 176 Ks and 1.23 WHIP with 11 wins in 156 IPs.
Blaze Alexander- SS- ARI- Every spring there are players who come out of nowhere to earn some attention. This spring it could be Alexander. He is slashing .385/.385/.577 with a double and 2 triples in the Cactus League. The defending NL champs have a utility position that is possibly open and Alexander plays 3 infield positions. He has a .476 BABIP, but had a .398 mark while hitting .291 at AA Reno in 305 PAs in 2023. Alexander also hit .306 at AA Amarillo in 2022 with a .383 BABIP in 363 PAs. If you are looking for a low risk sleeper, keep an eye on Alexander, who is the 20th-ranked prospect in the Diamondbacks organization.
Garrett Mitchell- OF- MIL- A torn labrum knocked Mitchell out of the Brewers' lineup shortly after he had earned the CF spot to start the season. He ended up with 3 homers in only 73 PAs and slashed .246/.315/.446 in his abbreviated playing time. Mitchell has been a few swinger in his limited MLB career, striking out 54 times in 141 PAs. At AAA Nashville the last two seasons, though, he has K% of 17.1% and 21.2%. Mitchell is part of a youthful competition for the CF and RF positions with the Brewers. Phenom Jackson Chourio as well as Sal Frelick, Joey Weimer, and Blake Perkins are in the mix. Mitchell is slashing .286/.400/.333 in the Cactus League so far. He is showing no aftereffects of last year's injury. Mitchell is projected to hit 14 homers and steal 7 bases in 488 ABs in 2024.
Jeimer Candelario- 3B- CIN- The suspension of Noelvi Marte puts Candelario as the favorite to man the hot corner for the Reds. He is projected to hit 22 homers and bat .244 with 73 runs and 73 RBI this season.
J. P. Crawford- SS- SEA- Crawford had a decent fantasy season in 2023. He slashed .266/.380/.438 with a wOBA of .359 and 19 homers in 638 PAs. Crawford could be set to have some negative regression this season. He had a .256 xBA, .379 xSLG, and xwOBA of .339 last year, so he enjoyed some good luck. Crawford's projection for this year is a .258/.366/.403 slash line with 15 homers, 81 runs, and 58 RBIs. His ADP of 22.03 is higher than his FDP of 25.06. A slight decline is suspected for Crawford this season.
Ricky Tiedemann- P- TOR- Tiedemann had what is considered a successful Grapefruit League debut yesterday. He had been delayed by some minor calf and hamstring injuries but is back on track, if a bit behind other pitchers. Tiedemann threw 26 pitches (16 strikes) across 1.1 IP, allowing a run on 2 hits while striking out 2 and not allowing a walk. His fastball was hitting 97+ mph. Tiedemann will be stretched out in his next starts. He may not break camp with the Blue Jays but he is doing nothing to diminish his prime prospect status. Tiedemann will likely join the rotation not too far into the regular season if he starts the year in the minors. He is projected to be able to post a 3.74 ERA and strike out 148 batters in 136 IP.
Dean Kremer- P- BAL- Kremer put up his best start of the Grapefruit League this season, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits, striking out 3 and walking none in 4 IP. Kremer is in the 5th starter spot for the Orioles, which will give him some value pitching for a solid team. He is projected to win 11 games and post a 4.45 ERA 1.30 WHIP, and 165 Ks in 179 IPs. Kremer put up 172.2 IP last year so is looked at to take a regular turn and be consistent. His ERA+ was 98, so just about league average, while his FIP- as 107, so better than average. In very deep leagues Kremer can help you pick up a couple of extra wins over the course of the season.
