Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep - March 19, 2024

Jarred Kelenic

Kelenic was once a highly touted prospect thanks to early first round draft capital, premium athleticism, and strong minor league performances. He spent three full seasons with Seattle's big league club, but only slashed .204/.283/.373 across 252 games. Seattle shipped him to Atlanta this offseason, and many pegged Kelenic as a continued breakout candidate in a potent Atlanta lineup. Unfortunately, Kelenic has evolved from a late-round flier in deep leagues to unrosterable. He is slashing a simply terrible .071/.152/.071 in 46 trips to the plate this spring. 46 PA's is not a serious sample size, but he's punched out 12 times and all three of his hits are singles. Furthermore, the Braves recently signed Adam Duvall, who has been a more consistent power-bat throughout his career. The Duvall signing clearly indicates the Braves are losing faith in Kelenic's ability to play everyday. The spring didn't go the way anyone planned for Kelenic, so for now you probably don't need to roster him.

Jackson Merrill

I wrote about Merrill two weeks ago, but it's worth checking in again in light of the recent news that he will be in the starting lineup for the Padres on Opening Day. Merrill is slashing .351/.400/.595 in 40 spring training trips to the plate, but the biggest takeaway from that line is the 3:3 BB:K rate and two homers. Merrill didn't have a strikeout problem in the minors (11.8% in AA), so the fact that he has carried it over into a brief spring is a green flag. With the Prospect Promotion Incentive now a thing, there is a strong chance Merrill stays in the bigs all year as long as he isn't terrible. I love Merrill as a stash in points leagues, where BB/K ratios are valued. Plus, we may see two-position eligibility with him transitioning to CF.

Gavin Stone

The Dodgers selected Stone in the 5th (and last) round of the 2020 Draft, mostly for his clean delivery and athleticism. His best minor league season came in an insane 2022, where he posted a 1.41 ERA across 121.2 IP. He punched out 12.4 per 9 and only allowed 0.2 HR per 9 in that year. He has a demonstrated history of missing bats and keeping the ball in the ballpark. Unfortunately, that didn't exactly carry over in his 2023 debut, where he allowed 2.3 HR per 9 and only punched out 6.4 per 9 in 31 rookie innings. While we never expect minor league stats to exactly carry over into the bigs, this regression in underlying ability is fairly hefty. Luckily, we have gotten a glimpse of the better version of Stone this spring, as he has allowed no homers and punched out 9 guys in 9.1 innings of work. I don't think there is big time upside here from a fantasy perspective, but the Dodgers just named him their fifth starter, so there is some upside to note. I make no promises, but Dodger pitchers should fare well in the W column, and the job is his until he loses it.

Kyle Harrison

Harrison was a punchout machine in the minor leagues, sending 35.6% of hitters back to the dugout on strikes in 65.2 AAA innings. Unfortunately, his punchout history is just as strong as his walk history, as Harrison also gave free bases away at 16.3% in that AAA stint. Last year, Harrison made seven rookie starts totalling 34.2 innings, but posted near league-average 23.8% K's and 7.5% BB's, much more sensical figures. The main issue with Harrison is his flyball tendencies. He got a concerningly low 27.8% in the groundball department in the bigs, and was only getting 35.8% in AAA. There is real homerun risk. That being said, he plays in a tough park to hit homers in, so that could work to his advantage. The Giants should also be respectable this year. I see two-category upside in the W and K department. If you get started desperate, this is a guy to consider on your short list. 

Louis Varland

Varland has been as good as one can ask this spring, allowing zero runs in 11 IP, while punching out 11 and only walking one. Varland was used both in relief and as a starter last year, but there is a strong chance he slots into the Twins rotation full time this year. Varland quietly checks a lot of boxes. He throws strikes (6% BB), punches enough guys out (25.1%),  throws hard (Top 97 this spring), and gets groundballs (45.4%). The issue is that, while Varland has solid stuff, he leaves a lot over the middle of the plate, especially the fastball and changeup. We usually see secondary pitches perform better than fastballs, but Varland's slider and changeup got rocked last year (.612 xSLG vs. SL, .599 xSLG vs. CH). Varland allowed a concerning .415 xwOBACON across all pitch types last year. His 2.12 HR/9 was one of the worst rates in the bigs last year. He gets right around league average chase and whiff rates, so if he can avoid the middle of the zone and utilize the cutter more often (.301 xwOBA), he should slightly reduce some of that quality contact. I don't think he's a must-have right now, but he is definitely a solid option to have on your short list of emergency starters, with slight upside for more.

 

Zac Gallen

Gallen is currently going as SP9 off the board, but I have some red flags that need to be addressed. Gallen is being drafted here because he has been a consistent starter over the past several years (88 GS last three years), and has thrown at least 180 in the last two (210 last year). So yes, you're getting the innings, which means you're getting the wins and strikeouts. If you value that at his ADP, go for it, but just know that Gallen got hit last year and got hit HARD.  His 46.2% Hard-Hit rate and 91.5 EV are bottom of the barrel figures. He posted career worsts in Barrel% (9.2), Sweet-Spot% (36.4), xwOBACON (.399) and xERA (4.16). Gallen gets touted in the industry for being one of the safer starters, and I think that's more due to quantity right now, but I see him as having slightly more risk than consensus would suggest. 

George Kirby

Kirby is a strike throwing monster, walking only 2.5% of batters last year in a large, 190.2 IP sample. The strike throwing is here to stay. Kirby was well known for it in college, and he has demonstrated it all throughout his pro career. This outlier ability gives Kirby a 110 Location+, the highest rate amongst qualified starters. He pairs it with a solid 106 Stuff+ across his arsenal, which combined give him a 109 Pitching+, good for third amongst all qualified starters. I will say that his Location+ outlier skills may come from throwing an unusual amount of strikes, something the models probably have never seen before. To account for this, I'm looking at his high chase rate (32.9%) and low Whiff rate (22.9%). I don't love this combination, as it means that hitters expect Kirby to throw strikes, so they "chase" due to lack of expectation of him throwing a ball, and make contact (low whiff) when it is in the zone. This is a slippery slope. If Kirby is going to be in the zone this often, he needs to have the stuff to back it up, and it looks like he has enough. Unless we see a jump in stuff, I think he is near his ceiling, so view Kirby as a rotation-stabilizing piece on your team, but may lack upside. 

Giancarlo Stanton

The former MVP winner was once a lock to be a year-in-year-out contributor in the homerun department, but the last two years have not gone as planned for the slugger. In 2021, Stanton bounced back from having two down years prior, only playing 41 games combined between 2019 and 2020. In 2021, Stanton slashed .273/.354/.516 with 35 homers. A little light for an MVP winner, but solid nonetheless. Since then, Stanton's production has taken a nosedive in the batting average department, as he hit just .211 in 2022 and .191 in 2023. Weirdly, Stanton's exit velos and hard hit rates have only slightly taken a step back. He posted a career low wxOBACON (.429), but that figure itself is respectable. His BB% and K% are near career averages. So what gives? Oddly, Stanton's quality of non-homerun balls put into play has regressed significantly. He has posted an outlier .227 and .210 BABIP in the last two years and while some may cite positive regression, this is over 867 plate appearances, a large sample. The only way this happens is if we see a really large quantity of super poorly hit balls in play. Think popups, high flyballs, and soft/medium hit grounders. Well hit grounders, line drives, and flyballs have tons of variance in outcome but popups and soft grounders (for slow players, he's slow) don't. Those are predictable outs. Well, unfortunately for Stanton, he posted his highest popup rate since 2018 (8.9%) and highest Under% ever (26.6%). This is why we see his launch angle remain the same, but see his Sweet-Spot% be the lowest of his career the last two seasons. The flyballs are becoming close to popups and grounders are becoming closer to choppers. There has been a fundamental change in the kind of hitter he is, which could be swing or injury related, but I won't go into that. He has a .751 OPS this spring, but being DH-only may make him unplayable for fantasy purposes.

Alex Verdugo

Verdugo was a big piece of the prospect package coming back for Mookie Betts several years ago, and he's been exactly average for Boston since then. Verdugo has posted 6.0 bWAR the last three seasons, all of which have been full, so again, exactly average from a real-life standpoint. Verdugo is now a Yankee, playing in a ballpark with a famous short porch in right. Unfortunately, that's not necessarily conducive to Verdugo's skillset. Verdugo hit 13 homers last year, but he only would've hit 12 if he played every game at Yankee stadium. The issue is that he doesn't pull the ball (34.9%)  in the air (23.1%) that often. Both those figures are just a touch below league average. Fortunately, Verdugo is excellent at controlling the zone and staying disciplined (22.2% Chase, 15.6% Whiff), which is probably why he has been so consistent the last three years. He now plays in what should be a slightly better lineup, so I will give him a slight bump up compared to his counting stats from last year. He is a high floor, low upside piece that can stabilize your team in deeper leagues.

Henry Davis

The former number one overall pick has been lighting it up in spring training with a 1.070 OPS thanks to four homers in only 28 PA's. That homerun rate is not sustainable, but it's encouraging to see after he struggled in 2023. Last year, he posted a paltry .291 xwOBA in 255 PA's, a light figure considering his draft pedigree. Luckily for Davis, he's young and has a strong MiLB resume. Davis slashed .306/.454/.561 in 250 MiLB PA's last season, so it made sense to see him in the bigs. He also walked (45) almost as much as he punched out (48). I'm a sucker for guys that hit upper-minors pitching without much pro experience and have pedigree. This is the kind of profile I would bet on. There aren't massive green flags in his big league data, but there are some small ones. He posted near league-average rates in Hard-Hit%, Sweet-Spot%, and Chase%. So, there is reason to believe the power will play in the bigs, and there is some contact ability. He is quietly an above-average runner as well, and attempted 8 steals last year. He is a for-sure bench stash if you punt on catchers this year, and is a screaming buy in dynasty.

Will Smith

The list of catchers from last year with at least 75 R, 75 RBI, and punched out less than 20%: Adley Rutschman, Will Smith. The Prince of Bel-Air has been considered one of the best offensive catchers in the game prior to Rutschman's arrival. Unfortunately, Smith actually had a down year in 2023, posting career lows in Barrel % (6.7) and xwOBACON (.365). He did also post a career low in K% (16.1), so we need to explore what is happening here. It looks like Smith also posted career highs in 1st Pitch Swing%, Swing%, Chase%, Chase Contact% and Zone Swing%. His Zone Contact was near his career average. It seems fairly obvious here that Smith became much more aggressive, and his solid contact skills allowed him to make more contact early in the count, as opposed to waiting for a better pitch he likes. Luckily, it seems more like an approach issue rather than a fundamental regression in ability. If he can fix that hiccup, I'm confident we can see the slightly better Will Smith again. As a bonus, he now hits in the same lineup as Shohei Ohtani, so I still expect him to do very well in the counting stats category. In points leagues where controlling the zone matters, Smith is right behind Rutschman in value. 

Alec Bohm

Bohm was a high-end prospect out of the 2018 draft, praised for a hit-power combo that put him in the early first round. After an excellent 2019 in the minors, Bohm was called up and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2020. Bohm hasn't been able to repeat his solid 44-game showing in 2020, but has slowly creeped back up, and actually put together a respectable offensive 2023. He set career bests in HR% (3.3), K% (15.4), GB% (42.6), and FB% (23.8), but also set career worsts in Barrel% (5.7), Hard-Hit% (41.7), and EV (89.4). It seems like he has had a hard time putting it all together - forcing the ball in the air has resulted in more homers, but the quality of contact overall has suffered. Bohm will now be 27, so he's not old, but he's not young. I'm not promising more upside, but at a thin position, Bohm still has a .270 AVG - 20 HR - 90 RBI line in him that is super realistic, and might be useful if you find yourself thin at the hot corner this year.

Elly De La Cruz

Elly set the world on fire by destroying the baseball across three different minor league levels in 2022 and 2023, in addition to the Dominican Winter League as only a 20 year old. As I've said before, I'm a sucker for young guys beating up upper-minors pitching. It's one of the biggest green flags out there. While I'm going to hold true to that, I have to note that Elly does not control the zone very well. He punched out at a 26.9% clip in AAA last year and a 33.7% clip in the bigs. This is due to his free swinging approach (32.8% Chase) and middling contact (29.7% Whiff). A player with this kind of hole in his game needs to make up for it with power, and he does. Elly posted a 119.2 Max EV and 45.9% Hard-Hit rate. Luckily, he is also a premium runner, showing literal top of the scale footspeed, getting up to 30.5 feet/second. It's impressive for his 6'5" size. He also has elite arm strength and a strong defensive skillset. The secondary tools are important here, because they will keep him in the lineup, even through potential slumps. There is just so much risk. He doesn't always make flush contact (30.5% Sweet Spot, 14th Percentile). The upside is real. If he can reel in the punchouts and make even a little more contact, you're looking at a top 25 fantasy hitter that will be a massive four category contributor. If you draft Elly, I'd recommend taking other safer hitters to balance out your risk. 

Rhys Hoskins

A gruesome injury in spring training ended Hoskins' 2023 before it even started. An injury to Bryce Harper forced the Phillies to move Harper to firstbase, putting Hoskins out of a job. Luckily, Hoskins was able to sign on with the Brewers, who could use a little extra thump in their lineup. People forget how good Hoskins was before his injury. In 2022, his 4.8 HR% ranked him 21st, and in 2021 his 6.1 HR% would've ranked him tied for 12th if he qualified. He's got 4 seasons on his resume with a HR% over 5%. He makes a ton of flush contact (37.3% Sweet-Spot, 85th Percentile), Hard Contact (44.3%, 73rd Percentile), and has posted double digit walk rates every year of his career (13.5% career). These are 2022 figures. Coming off a major injury certainly will make us question things, but Hoskins was a startable 1B in fantasy. If you punt at the position, he could be a deep value.

Junior Caminero

Caminero is currently the number four overall prospect in baseball after tearing up AA as only a 19 year old. He also raked in the Dominican Winter League as only a 19 year old. The Rays called him up in September of last year, and he was pretty unnnotable in 36 PA's. There is a tremendous amount of hype around the prospect, especially since he's being advertised as having a hit-power combo. After posting a .631 OPS in the bigs in 2023, he has a .719 OPS in 27 PA's in spring training. While some thought Caminero would start in the bigs, the Rays recently reassigned him to minor league camp. While fans are disappointed, the Rays are in no rush with their budding star and have plenty of other options in the infield. Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, Curtis Mead, and Amed Rosario lead the race for starting jobs. However, there is a small rule in the Prospect Promotion Incentive that can still force the Rays' hands. According to the PPI rule, a player doesn't have to break camp, they only need to be on the starting roster within two weeks of opening day. Then, the player needs to accrue one year of service time to qualify for the award. So, hypothetically, the Rays could call up Caminero before the two week deadline, and still qualify for the award. Also, Since Caminero did accrue some service time last year, the "one year service time" threshold is a bit lower, so they could send him down for some short time next year. But that is completely speculation. The point being is that I'm not giving up on Caminero just yet. The Orioles did almost the same thing with Grayson Rodriguez last year.