Yandy Diaz
If you want a player with a sea of red for a stats page, Diaz is your guy. He led all qualified 1B in wRC+ (164) and was 4th in xwOBA (.381). He slashed a strong .330/.410/.522, and while some may argue for regression, Diaz's xBA of .305 ranks 6th amongst all hitters. He also is plus at controlling the zone (19.7 Chase%, 18.3 Whiff%, both 83rd Percentile), which allow him to maintain his high walk rates (10.8%). If you're waiting on the 1B position and playing in a points league that values walking and not striking out, Diaz is a safe, stabilizing piece on your roster.
Parker Meadows
Parker, the younger brother of Austin, briefly appeared in the bigs for the Tigers towards the end of last season, slashing .232/.331/.368 in 145 trips to the plate. The sell with Meadows is the speed and defense, which should give him a consistent role on a big league team that could use some outlier abilities. Meadows is a top of the scale runner (90th percentile speed) and can manage a large Comerica centerfield (4 OAA). What excites me most about Meadows is how he was able to neutralize his platoon splits in 2023. In 2022, Meadows posted a .610 OPS against LHP in AA, and an .876 OPS against RHP. In his big league 2023 sample, those figures were .821 OPS against LHP and .808 OPS against RHP in AAA. In his big league 2023 sample, those figures were .732 OPS against LHP and .689 against RHP. You read that right. Meadows went from a big platoon risk to actually having reverse splits. For this reason, Meadows has a strong chance to be an all-day everyday guy, with a 20-20 HR-SB potential, although my gut says the SB total outpaces the HR total in 2024.
Brent Rooker
Rooker became famous in 2017 when he posted an insane .811 slugging after hitting 30 doubles, 23 homers, and swiping 18 bags in only 309 PAs. Since then, only one other Power-5 hitter has posted a slugging over .800 with double-digit stolen bases in college. After cooking in the minors for a couple years with several different orgs, Rooker landed a full-time gig in Oakland last year. He was a bright spot in a thin Oakland lineup, pacing the team in homers (30) and RBI (69). Unfortunately, Rooker is a sellout hitter with massive whiff issues (38.2%) that lead to near league-leading punchouts (32.7%). Rooker had punchout issues in the minors as well, never posting below 23.8%. The issue is here to stay, and it makes him unplayable in points leagues where punchouts are a deduction. That being said, there is legitimate power that makes him an interesting DH in deeper leagues. His .472 xwOBACON was tied for 4th amongst all qualified big leaguers, and 49.5 Hard-Hit% is 18th. I think this is just the nature of the player with your classic power/punchout tradeoff. Where Rooker can provide a value is if the Oakland lineup takes a step forward. The vibes aren't great up there right now, but they do have some interesting pieces. Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, and JJ Bleday at least have prospect pedigree. Zack Gelof was excellent in his 69 game sample. I'm not saying it's an exciting group, nor a group I would bet on, but if they could at least get a little better, Rooker could benefit in the R/RBI department. As far as his fantasy value, he is a HR-only guy that I may sub in on teams where I'm solid in the AVG department but need some thump. He probably doesn't need to be rostered right now, but I'm keeping an eye on him.
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Mike Trout
The once lock first round pick, and consensus best player of the modern era (prior to Ohtani) is officially a sketchy fantasy asset. About a year and a half ago, it was revealed that Trout has a "rare" back condition, and while I'm no doctor, nor claim to be, it just seems like that condition has affected his body as a whole. Trout hasn't played more than 140 games since 2016, and he has only six stolen bases over the last four seasons. Yikes. That being said, I do think Trout's injury problem doesn't outweigh his pure ability, and I really like him at his 52 ADP overall (which I think isn't updated because I routinely see him go later). Trout still features top of the scale batted ball data. He wasn't a qualified hitter, but he would've ranked 2nd in xwOBACON, 7th in lowest GB%, 10th in xwOBA, and 11th in Hard-Hit%. While I also doubt he plays a full-season, the season that you do get will be HIGHLY productive, and will still average out to a good fantasy player when you fill-in for him during his IL stints. Plus, what if he doesn't get hurt this season?
Oneil Cruz
Cruz was firmly on the mega-hype train in 2022 after hitting 17 homers and stealing 10 bags in only 87 games as a 23 year old, a full season pace of about 30 HR-20 SB. His 2023 season ended early after fracturing his fibula and the baseball world missed out on one of the most exciting young players in the game. Cruz is now healthy and ready for a continued breakout in 2024. The biggest concern some have about Cruz is the stolen base ability, which will be needed to offset the lower average. The good news is that in 2022, Cruz posted 98th percentile footspeed, an insane feat for a 6'7" body. He also managed to steal four bases in 12 games in the Dominican Winter League, so even if his speed regresses somewhat, there is still great raw speed and it looks like he's still making attempts on the basepaths. As for the power, I've seen Cruz take BP myself. I was in Arizona for the AFL in 2019, and it was truly some of the most insane power I have ever seen. That was five years ago. Cruz posted 91st percentile EV in 2022. The pop is there. Unfortunately Cruz has some intense splits, with a .532 OPS and 53% K against LHP in 2022. His 34.9% K rate would've ranked first amongst qualified players. No bueno. Cruz has 30 HR - 30 SB upside in him. But there are real contact issues with little sign of them going away. He's a gamble, a gamble that I think is worth it at SS13, but having a contingency plan or high AVG lineup will be needed to offset the risk.
Jonah Heim
The 18 year old backstop just posted a career year, with career highs in a variety of major categories including xwOBA (.324), Barrel (8.0), LA (17.3), and K (19.2). The best part about Heim is that he has steadily gotten better throughout the year and plays in potent offense that will give him plenty of opportunities. His role on the team is also growing. Heim is a premium receiver and thrower, but also has no competition for playing time, making him a great bet for 500 PAs again. He's a switch hitter, so there isn't a platoon risk. Heim is quietly one of the safest catcher options in fantasy. He was the only catcher in 2023 to eclipse 90 RBI, and was one of five catchers with at least 500 PA, 15 HR, and less than 23% K. He goes as C13, but he can start for you.
Justin Turner
The 39 year old will join the Blue Jays after a productive year in Boston, where he slashed .276/.345/.455. While Justin is personally one of my favorite players, it does look like father time is making himself known, plus Turner will now go from an offensive park in Boston to a more neutral hitting environment in Toronto. Luckily, Red Turn is a huge pull-and-air guy, making playing at Fenway a disadvantage. In fact, Fenway would've produced the third fewest homeruns for him compared to all parks. When you consider the normal sized, but farther out fence, it does seem like there is slight favor for more homers for Turner at the Rogers Centre. Outside of homeruns, Turner's discipline has been his calling card. He whiffed at only a 17.5% clip last season, near his career average, and a 71st percentile chase rate of 25.7%. When players age, we tend to see exit velocities dip quicker than discipline. Turner is still very disciplined, still makes contact (84.3% compared to 85% career average) and can still get the ball in the year. Plus, he qualifies for three positions. Turner is a perfectly suitable depth piece in deep leagues.
Isaac Paredes
Paredes feels like a steal that is too good to be true right now. He was one of five 3B to go 30 HR - 90 RBI last season, and in that group he had the second highest walk rate (10.2%) and second lowest punchout rate (18.2%). Most analysts will tell you that he is due for regression, and while it may look like that on the surface, I think that amount of regression may be a bit overstated. Let's start off with the bad - Paredes posted a .488 SLG, but only a .369 xSLG, good for the 2nd largest gap amongst qualified hitters. Wow. He also has bottom-scale exit data, with a 28.5% Hard-Hit (6th Percentile) and 86.9 EV (13th Percentile). Literally bad. Tropicana was also the most conducive park for him to hit homers (31 expected), and he therefore posted 7 homers over expected. Ok, so how on earth could I believe the regression will only be moderate? Well, Paredes is a mega pull-and-air guy, in fact, the best in the bigs. His 54.5% pull was tied for first amongst qualified hitters, and his 47% FB ranks 11th. Paredes hit zero homers to centerfield or opposite field last year. He has this very odd skill of lacking true power, but having just enough, and finding the barrel just enough to consistently hit homers. He also has contact skills (16.5% Whiff in 2022 and 18.2% in 2023). His batted ball distribution was the same in 2022. Zero centerfield or opposite field homers. Paredes may have gotten lucky in the hits department, but he still walks, doesn't punchout, has pulled the ball in the air consistently in a large sample, and plays in a park super conducive to his skillset. Hey Rays, your genius is showing again. Paredes just has a super specific skillset that we rarely see.
Sonny Gray
Gray is a super reliable, rotation-stabilizing option that I love at ADP. Gray hasn't made less than 22 starts in his whole career, outside of 2020 obviously, but what's more impressive is that he made all 32 starts last year at age 33. Gray posted a career low 2.83 FIP thanks to a 0.4 HR/9 and 7.3 BB%, his lowest since 2015. That being said, there was some luck in the homer department, as Gray's distribution of batted balls allowed was mostly unchanged compared to career averages, and he actually had the second highest EV and LA against of his career. xFIP (3.64) and sIERA (3.95) take note of this. In Gray's defense, his usage did change dramatically in 2022 compared to 2023. He doubled the usage of his sweeper (10.3% to 20.4%) at the expense of his sinker (25.9% to 15.7%). Gray has allowed only one homer against the sweeper the last two seasons (zero last year) and ten against the sinker. There is some reason to believe the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark might be here to stay. At SP33 in drafts, I'm targeting him as a safe asset if I have other high-risk arms.
*I wrote the above paragraph prior to Gray's hamstring injury today. I'm not super worried about a hamstring injury, as it shouldn't affect him long term. If he misses time, so be it, but I still like Gray given the adjustments he made last year.
Jacob DeGrom
DeGrom is one of the best pitchers in the last decade, and maybe ever. He is a deadly combination of being able to miss barrels at a high rate while throwing tons of strikes. Unfortunately, he has undergone TJ for the second time and will not be back until the summer. The good news is that all the rumors coming out of Surprise indicate that we will eventually see him in 2024. In all formats, DeGrom is a must-start when healthy, and the extra good news is that he didn't show a ton of regression in 2023. Across 7 starts, DeGrom still averaged 98.7 on his FB, his 42.1% Whiff rate would've led the bigs by a large margin, and his 11.25 K/BB is just insane. I'm obviously not reaching for him, but if you can draft-to-IL him, this is still a guy with something left in the tank.
Casey Mize
The former first overall pick in 2018 has had a bumpy career due to various injuries. He rose quickly after dominating the mid-minors in 2019, and made his debut in 2020. He threw 150 solid innings in 2021, but only 10 in 2022 due to an elbow injury. Since then, he's had both TJ and back surgery, missing all of 2023. Back surgery is always scary, and coupling it with TJ makes you genuinely feel bad for the guy, but Mize is back in action and having a solid spring given the circumstances. On March 3rd, Mize threw two shutout innings against the Yankees, topping out at 97 while setting 95. It was his second appearance of the spring. Unfortunately, he is walking too many guys (4 in 3.2 IP), but we can give him some leash with that, as command is usually the last thing to return after TJ, if it does. Mize isn't rosterable right now, but this is another guy I'm keeping tabs on, as he has the upside to sneak into the back of your pitching rotation.
Craig Kimbrel
The journeyed closer currently sits 8th all time in saves, right behind the also active Kenley Jansen. Kimbrel's days of being dominant are behind him, but he is still effective as a reliever, and I really like the situation he is walking into. Kimbrel saved 23 games for a solid Phillies team last season, but will now join the up and coming Orioles, who figure to win plenty of games, even in a competitive AL East. With Felix Bautista missing the 2023 season, the closer role should belong to Kimbrel. He's not the same dominant closer he once was, but the underlying figures are still great. Kimbrel still throws hard (95.8) and with extension (6.9), which allows him to routinely miss barrels (33% Whiff). Nonetheless, the results have been mixed on the ERA side because he isn't the best strike thrower (10.5%) and does give up some good contact (46.7% Hard-Hit, 40.1% Sweet Spot). I can't tell you with conviction what I think the ERA will end up being, but as of right now he's a solid closer on a good team.
Aroldis Chapman
If we want to talk about who the single most difficult pitcher to face of all time is, regardless of role or career output, it might be Chapman. The long-limbed fireballer is one of the hardest throwers of all time, and still averaged 99.5 on the FB last year. He is virtually impossible to make contact against (42.2% Whiff, 41.4% K). I wouldn't be worried about his 2022, which is a small fluke when you look at this whole career. Chapman averaged 97.7 of the FB in 2022, which obviously changes the whole profile, but he has regained that velocity and is missing bats again. I'm not super convinced that the Pirates are winning a lot of games this year, but he is a closer that will certainly punch guys out at an astronomical clip, should still get some saves, and will help in the ERA department.
Robert Stephenson
Stephenson is the prized Angels free agent signing this year, as they need serious bullpen help. Stephenson reinvented his pitch shapes in Tampa Bay, and it led to him leading the league in Whiff (44.3) and third in punchouts (38.3 ). What I like most about Stephenson is that there was a well-documented change in his stuff, making him a completely different player to who he was before. Stephenson opted for a hard bullet slider/cutter over the semi-sweeper he was throwing and the results were amazing. The cutter is now his most thrown pitch at 41.4%, and posted a .159 xwOBA against. Unfortunately, Stephenson recently suffered a shoulder injury, and his status for opening day is in question. As of right now, it's unfortunate, but not serious. I think Stephenson, who doesn't have closer competition, is a good get for his RP29 ADP.
Jackson Merrill
The Padres are known for being aggressive with younger players, so Merrill is a guy we need to mention. The 2021 first rounder has been solid on the surface in his minor league career, but given his age, he's given the Padres a lot to be excited about. He held his own in the AFL as a 19 year old in 2022, slashing .261/.316/.352. Again, not great, but when you consider he was three years younger than the average player, it's impressive. Last year he slashed .273/.338/.444 in AA, being 4.4 years younger than the competition. Now, Merrill is doing the same thing in big league spring training. He's slashing .286/.333/.375. Once again, not amazing, but when you consider he is still only 20 years old...impressive. Merrill has come up through the system as a SS, but the Padres have plenty of infielders, so he's been taking reps in the outfield, which will hopefully give him dual eligibility. He posted a 15-15 HR-SB season in 114 MiLB games last season, and made a ton of contact, only punching out at 11.8% in AA. He needs to break camp with the team, and that is still up in the air. If he is in the starting lineup for the Padres on Opening Day, then he is a guy worth considering for the last spot on your bench in deeper leagues.
