Shota Imanaga-Cubs-SP
Shota Imanaga went 5 IP and gave up 3 ER on 5 H, 0 BB, and 8 K's against the Brewers. Through 15 GS, Imanaga has a 3.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Everything on the surface looks in line with what he did last year (2.91 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 173.1 IP). The concern is that his strikeout rate has dropped from 25% to 18%. He still commands the zone well (5% BB), but the strikeouts have disappeared. His swinging strike rate is down as well (15% to 12%). Last year, a lot of his success was driven by his fastball, and this year it has not been as effective (-2.4 Pitch Value). Batters have hit .243 with a .903 OPS against his fastball compared to .229 and .747 OPS last year. This is why his SIERA has gone from 3.50 to 4.79. His next start will come at home against the Reds.
William Contreras-Brewers-C
William Contreras was 2-4 with 2 HR (8), 2 R, and 2 RBI against the Cubs. Contreras is hitting .250 with 8 HR, 56 R, 45 RBI, and 5 SB. It has been a down year for Brewers catcher. He is coming off a monster 2024 season in which he hit .281 with 23 HR, 99 R, 92 RBI, and 9 SB to finish as the #1 catcher in auction dollars earned. He is currently #9 in similar territory as Austin Wells and Carson Kelly. Coming into the year, he was viewed as the clear-cut top catcher. Despite not having a terrible year, this still makes him a major disappointment for fantasy owners who took him with an early pick. The most concerning part is that his hard contact has disappeared. His Barrel%, Hardhit%, maxEV, and ISO have all dropped significantly. The good news is that he is still young enough to bounce back, but that won't likely happen until next year.
Ryne Nelson-Diamondbacks-SP
Ryne Nelson went 5.1 IP and gave up 1 ER on 6 H, 0 BB, and 8 K's against the Tigers. Ryne Nelson has a 3.20 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 13% K:BB through 95.1 IP (22 G, 12 GS). He has made some changes to his fastball, which has allowed it to be more effective. It has been a top ten fastball by pitch value (#7). This provides a tremendous foundation for success as a major league pitcher. Since the beginning of May, he has a 2.70 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 18% K, and 8% BB. The strikeout rate isn't great, and he has been helped by his home park (2.09 ERA). His next start will be at home against the Padres, which is a good matchup for him.
Kerry Carpenter-Tigers-OF
Kerry Carpenter was 2-4 with an HR (17), 1 R, and 3 RBI against the Diamondbacks. Carpenter is hitting .264 with 17 HR, 43 R, 35 RBI, and 1 SB. He has a good combination of contact (22% K) and power (.238 ISO) but he is still barely inside the top 150 hitters (#144) in terms of auction dollars earned. His power is good but not great. His counting stats are well below-average due to getting platooned at times and missing time due to injuries. Carpenter also has an aggressive approach at the plate (40% O-swing and 2% BB) which leads to a more volatile profile. The idea of Carpenter is better than the actual results.
Ke'Bryan Hayes-Reds-3B
The Pirates made an interdivision trade with the Cincinnati Reds. Hayes is hitting .236 with 2 HR, 34 R, 36 RBI, and 10 SB. He has not made good on his breakout 2023 season (.271 AVG with 15 HR, 65 R, 61 RBI, and 10 SB). In fact, it looks like an outlier when looking at his six-year career. Hayes plays excellent defense, which keeps his bat in the lineup, but he is a below-average offensive threat. The move away from PNC Park to Great American Ballpark is a good one, but that would mean he has to hit the ball in the air (31% FB) and pull it more (33% Pull). He is going to need a complete overhaul in his swing to become fantasy-relevant again. This is very hard to do in season.
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