It seems Bobby Jenks has gotten a bit tired of all the growing concerns within the media about where his arm is heading into the season. After firing 1 1/3 scoreless innings on Wednesday, Jenks told reporters that his location was significantly better and he's further ahead in his preparation than last year at this time. Jenks went on to use last year's 41 saves as an example of why not to worry about his 2007 spring training. Jenks 2nd half blow up last season leaves a seed of doubt in my mind when heading into 2007, combined with the arm issues he's had in the past and the supposed dead arm period he's going through right now and I tend to shy away from the price tag associated with Jenks. With that said, my risk averse preference isn't a reason to dismiss Jenks. Jenks has suffered from an unusually high BHIP% the last 2 years along with a relatively low Strand % for closers in 2006. Pair these numbers with His high K rate and strong ability to limit the HR ball and he continues to make an adequate option at the closing position.
Rickie Weeks flashed some of the potential that makes fantasy owners drool over the possibilities in Wednesday's 8-6 win over the Giants. Weeks went 3-3 with a HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI's, and 2 SB's. Weeks has had a solid spring hitting .322 with 2 HR's and 4 SB's. He remains one of the better 2B options at a thin position in Rotisserie leagues due to his intriguing speed-power combination. Weeks has the potential to hit 20 HR's and swipe 30 bases this year but it will come with a bit of a drain on the batting average. Weeks managed a .279 batting average last season while maintaining a high .307 BHIP% and while his speed suggests he should maintain a higher BHIP% than league average, I think the .307 figure may be difficult to maintain. Combine the high BHIP% with Weeks meager EYE (due to a very high K rate) and I'm pinning him more for a .270-.275 type year unless significant power strides are made. Weeks still provides excellent value because of his high Run-SB potential that comes with an additional 15-20 HR's, just be prepared that the batting average could be volatile due to his high K rate that makes him potentially prone to lengthy slumps.
Noah Lowry may have felt better about his final start of the spring, but I sure don't. Lowry allowed 6 runs in 5 innings, only 3 of which were earned, while allowing 9 base-runners and striking out 4. Lowry said after the game that he felt more comfortable with the downward plane of his pitches in the game but he still managed to give up 3 extra base hits in the game including a HR to Rickie Weeks. In 23 1/3 innings this spring Lowry's registered 16 K's and 16 BB's and posted an unimpressive 6.56 ERA. Lowry's sudden regression in his K rate last season led to an underwhelming 2006 campaign. This spring he seems to have regained the ability to strike out batters but has struggled mightily with his control. If Lowry continues to improve his K rate and finds a way to get his BB rate back in line with his career marks, he could be a solid sleeper posting a low 4.00's ERA with 150+ K's and double digit W's, however the 3 BB's in just 5 innings in this last start, to a Brewers team not known for patience, suggests he's still got a ways to go with his command.
Ryan Freel got the day off on Wednesday after slamming head first into the OF wall on Tuesday night. Freel had declared himself ready to play but admittedly needed the day off after still suffering from some soreness in his shoulder. Freel's value may be rising a bit over the last few weeks as it appears he's in line for the starting CF position that's been vacated by Ken Griffey Jr.'s move to RF. Most people remember Freel as the Utility player who never could quite garner enough AB's to tickle their interest, but that opinion is a bit misguided. Over the last 3 years, Freel has managed an average of 450 AB's in this utility role and the main reason he hasn't been getting to 500 is his injury history. In 2006, Freel's season was cut short by a left thumb injury along with various missed games throughout the season with lingering groin injuries. Similarly in 2005, Freel hit the DL 3 times with various Knee and Foot injuries. While the consensus with regards to Freel is that his AB's have been limited due to his "utility-role"status, it's really the injury history that has limited Freel's playing time. While it appears he's looking at a jump in value heading into this season as the starting CF be prepared that his value will be more effected by his ability to stay healthy than anything else.
Aaron Harang rounded out his unimpressive spring on Wednesday with a 5 inning, 10 hit outing that yielded 3 earned runs. Harang's spring ERA of 6.66 isn't quite as scary as the devilish number indicates. Though Harang got roughed up throughout the spring he struck out 22 in just under 27 innings and walked only 2 batters. When we tell you to take spring numbers with a grain of salt this is exactly the type of situation we're referring to. Harang's K and BB numbers have remained strong throughout the spring and he appears poised to build off his career 2006 campaign.
Is there anyone in Major League Baseball that can make more news without actually saying anything than Roger Clemens? Clemens spoke on Wednesday afternoon after a golf round to reporters who asked if he was coming back and he maintained his indecisive position. Clemens reiterated that his decision will be among 3 teams, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros and that he won't make a decision until he's forced to by his agent. The same bland answer continues to make headlines. I'm investing heavily in Clemens return and can't imagine a scenario in which he doesn't return. All 3 teams have a spot in their rotation cleared for him and a blank check waiting for him, and 2 of the 3 figure to be significant contenders. Clemens maintained his arm is in good shape as he continues to work out, but his mind isn't there yet. Clemens' value will be directly tied to whichever team he chooses as a move to the AL East will likely inflate his ERA and WHIP a bit while strengthening his W production.
Mark Prior was optioned to AAA on Wednesday afternoon after his start against the Rockies. Prior may have already felt like he was in AAA with the Cubs OF defense behind him that committed 3 errors in his 3 innings of work. The 3 errors led to 3 unearned runs, which were the only runs Prior allowed. He struck out 3 and walked 2, while allowing 2 hits in his 3 innings of work. Prior's fastball averaged around 87 MPH on Wednesday and while the improvement has been vast in his command and even in his velocity, the typical low-mid 90's velocity Prior previously maintained seems far away. Prior will begin the year in AAA and the Cubs maintain that a spot will be open for him on the major league roster as soon as he looks ready. I mentioned last week in this space that this would be a key start for Prior and the results were mixed. While I feel more confident with regards to his ability to be a major league pitcher, if his velocity doesn't return he'll have a hard time ever regaining the star form he flashed in 2003. In extremely deep leagues Prior may warrant a roster spot, but in most formats the late round flier on him isn't worth it right now.
Felix Hernandez got the W in his final spring training start of the season on Wednesday going 5 innings, 2 short of his scheduled 7, and allowing 2 earned runs on 7 hits. The King struck out 4, walked 1 and recorded 9 ground outs in his 5 innings. Hernandez looks primed for a big year heading into 2007. If we look at last year's numbers, Felix had a very high BHIP% allowed of .309 along with a low Strand % of .69 which left him with a middling 4.52 ERA when he deserved closer to 4.20. Felix's K rate remains very strong along with along with a solid BB rate. With a small step forward King Felix could be ready for a 200+ K campaign alongside a mid 3's ERA and 15+ Wins. The hype behind Felix heading into 2006 is more deserved this time around and I foresee a big year for King Felix that elevates him into the top 5 Starting Pitchers in the American League.
I wanted to talk a bit about Jose Vidro today because I think he's one of the more underrated 2B candidates heading into 2007. Vidro's demise as a fantasy option has been primarily due to his inability to stay healthy and this year's move to the DH role in Seattle should help spare some of the injury history that's accompanied him in the past. A look at Vidro's charts don't offer too much more comfort as his EYE has diminished each of the last 3 seasons as has his HR rate and Slugging %, but Vidro's EYE and BHIP% have remained in the levels indicative of a .290+ hitter and hitting in the middle of the Seattle lineup could see a rebound year with 15+ HR's and 70+ RBI's and Runs. Vidro certainly isn't one of the top 5 2B options in the AL or one of the top 10 in Mixed Leagues but there's certainly some value here for those of you in deeper leagues or those who aren't fortunate enough to nab one of the better options in AL only leagues. I certainly would rather take the flier on Vidro than Dustin Peodria, Ty Wigginton, and Aaron Hill and would even consider taking him ahead of his 2B counterpart in Seattle, Jose Lopez. If you're in a bind at 2B late on draft day (in deep leagues) don't forget about Vidro.
Salomon Torres finally felt he had his sinker under control on Wednesday and it's about time. Torres has been putting together one of the worst spring trainings of any reliever as yesterday's scoreless inning brought his ERA back down to 12.27 and has in the process been eliciting some concern from those owners who drafted him for some cheap saves. Last year Torres was one of the better closing options down the stretch as he closed out the 2nd half of 2006 with 11 saves and a 1.60 ERA in his final 39 innings of work. Once embedded in the closer's role Torres K rate jumped a bit as did his Strand Rate. For a guy that's been in relief roles throughout his career this is a bit unusual and may indicate that he's the type of guy that "gets up"for more meaningful appearances.
El Duque threw 6 innings in a minor league game on Wednesday and proclaimed himself ready to go for his scheduled start the 2nd game of the season on April 3rd in St Louis. El Duque threw 105 pitches and said he's fine despite all the aches and pains he's suffered with his neck this spring training. The Hernandez boys seem to have rubber arms and despite the fact that he and Julio Franco might be closer to collecting Social Security than his prime, El Duque offers some solid K and W potential heading into 2007. For those looking for 2 start pitchers for the first week it looks as if El Duque will throw on Tuesday against Kip Wells and then again Sunday in Atlanta against John Smoltz.
It appears the Yankees front office is forcing Joe Torre's hands a bit this year with the bullpen as Torre declared on Wednesday that in addition to Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth would not be used for more than an inning this season. While this has minimal fantasy impact, although it will help keep Rivera and Farnsworth fresher during the year, the real impact will be for the longer term benefit of the franchise. While Torre has been a HOF caliber manager in his tenure with the Yankees his one weakness seems to have been in his handling of the bullpen as he tends to fall in love with 1 or 2 relievers and works them to death throughout the season only to see them run out of gas towards the end of the year. This leads to them being forced to rely later on in the year and in the postseason on guys Torre hasn't exercising much confidence in throughout the season. The effects of reigning Torre's abuse of his relief corps should help the Yankees in the long run while occasionally costing their starters some wins in the regular season.
