In our continuing series on player
recommendations, the latest edition of Strategy Manager + highlights the
pitchers who are deviating from their projected production this season.
The under and over producers are listed according to their projected
rankings through the remainder of the season. The rankings are heavily
influenced by
current indicators such as their Dominance (K/I and Walk Ratios), Expected
ERA, Strand Rates and Balls Hit
into Play Ratios. On the PDF ranking sheet you will find 5 tiers
of Starting Pitchers. Similar to baseball's classification of starters
(Ace, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th Slot), we've taken a similar approach in
grouping the fantasy starters.
Let's jump in with a look
at the under/over performers: Ubaldo Jimenez' average fastball is
down 3-4 MPH this season, but at 93-94 he's learning that he still can be
a very effective pitcher. He has posted a Quality Start in 4 of his last 5
starts and hit 99 on occasion last night against the Padres. I believe
that he's turned the corner. Matt Cain has posted 9 Quality starts
this season, yet only has 4 Wins...he remains underrated. Max Scherzer
is ranked as the 77th best pitcher right now, and I'm making trade
offers for him in every league. Scherzer has a 3 year history of
struggling in May, only to heat up in the summer months. Last year
Scherzer had a 9.45 May ERA, and then went on to post a 2.31 ERA and 1.10
WHIP in the 2nd half.
Edison Volquez
finally came with his A game last night, and the shedding of his "gang
banger" look after his minor league stint is an indication that this kid
is maturing. Seven innings of 1 run ball is a vast improvement over the
mass of runs allowed in the 1st inning in his previous starts. Grab him if
it's not too late as he has the potential to be a top end #2. Matt
Latos is pitching like a fantasy ace once again, over the last 3 weeks
he's posted a 1.21 WHIP with a .94 K/I ratio. James Shields is
living large as the 15th best pitcher YTD, but his .81 Strand Rate is not
sustainable, nor is his lucky BHIP rate of .257, which is over 50 points
below his typical norm. Sell him only at a premium price. Josh Beckett
is off to one of his best starts in 5 years, however I would guestimate
that there is over a 60% probability that we're going to see a second half
collapse. Consider that his .84 Strand Rate is unsustainable as is his
.238 BHIP. Additionally Beckett's 2nd halves have been worth less than $7
in 3 of the last 5 years. Sell High. Chris Carpenter is 36 years
old, but his peripherals are still in line with his career norms. His
expected Wins should be 5 instead of 1, he's been unfortunate on balls hit
into play (.339 verses .282 4 year average), yet his K/I rate is above his
historical norm. Time to buy. Ryan Dempster laid an egg in his last
start, but he's posted a quality start in 5 of his last 7 outings. He's
currently ranked as the 106th best pitcher, look for him to grade as a #2
the rest of the way.
Here's a group of other
pitchers that are struggling, but I'm willing to take a shot on in the
bottom of my rotation based on their success in the past: Brian Matusz,
Bronson Arroyo, Mike Pelfrey, Brett Myers, Edwin Jackson, Randy Wells, &
Joel Pineiro. Outside of Matusz all of these guys should come
extremely cheap or be on your waiver wire.
Of the recent call-ups
who we consider to be among the top 50 pitching prospects in baseball,
here's how I would rank them for this season : Rubby De La Rosa (LA),
Jordan Lyles (HOU), Danny Duffy (KC), Andrew Oliver (DET). Please keep
in mind that we don't have a Stephen Strasburg type of callup this season,
these guys likely have a bottom of the rotation ceiling for this year.
Unexpected fast start
pitchers who have us concerned because of a lucky BHIP% are: John
Collmenter (.161), Clay Mortensen (.205), Josh Tomlin
(.211), Phil Humber (.221), Kyle Lohse (.230), AJ Burnett
(.233), Jeremy Helickson (.237), and Colby Lewis (.245)
Pitchers who are
underrated/undervalued because of a unlucky BHIP% include: Brandon
Marrow (.361), Edwin Jackson (.352), Zach Greinke
(.349), Chris Carpenter (.339), Cliff Lee (.336), Dan
Hudson (.333), and Ryan Dempster (.333)
Using
the Player Charts to validate Player Production
Be sure to visit
our Player Charts as they contain a wealth of knowledge and
a definition of many of the indicators we use. New this year is the
Sabermetric Database that makes sorting for these indicators a breeze.
Using
Advanced Stats to Determine Value
Remember to utilize our
Advanced Stats Database regularly, as it
contains some of the baseball stat indicators that we use to analyze
performance during the season. The
database contains many of the widely recognized indicators along
with our Fantasy Production Indicator (FPI).
The Splits Database!
Did you know that
Ubaldo Jimenez is allowing the opposition to hit at a .527 SLG at Home vs. .185
on the Road! Or that Andre Ethier is slugging .530 against Righties and only .302 against lefties? It's all in the Fantistics Splits Database .
Strategy
Plus: Understanding the Analysis
Presented in the
spreadsheet below
are the player rankings. The main categories posted are the Dominance
K/Inning Columns, WHIP ratio Columns, Roto $ Valuation Columns and the
League Ranking Columns. You will find the
Preseason (PreS), April, May, and Year to Date (YTD) posted under the Valuations and
Ranking categories. The Column under league ranking named Future is where
we see these players ranked moving forward through the remainder of 2011 at this point in time.
Good luck wth your trade
offers!- Anthony
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