As we move beyond the all star break, it's time to set our sights on the 2nd half. Every season we come across players who unexplainably perform at higher or lower levels during certain periods of the season. One possible explanation behind the phenomena: second half "positive trends" are due to the players inability to "get it into gear" during the first half, or the ability to "let it all out" during the second half. MLB player performances, unlike the well established principals of the stock market, do not take "random walks" but rather fall into clearly defined patterns. There are many possible explanations why players repeat trend patterns, but sometimes knowing "why" isn't as important as knowing "who". Know the splits and use them to your advantage.
Although some of the listed players above may be have a desirable or undesirable experience in the second half, they still may be moving in a opposite direction in the current rankings. Other factors such as current playing time situations, injuries, and regression to their "production mean" are also factors in the equation. Also keep in mind that all players are included in the analysis, including first and second year players. The 1st/2nd half splits on players with less then 2 years of playing time should be considered inconclusive.
Notable 2nd Half Pitching Risers among pitchers include Max Scherzer, Derek Holland, Hiroki Koroda, RA Dickey, , Kris Medlen, Travis Wood, Mike Minor, Madison Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzjia, Homer Bailey, Zack Grienke, Matt Latos, and Matt Garza.
Second Half difficulty has arisen on (based on a 3 year average) some notables like Josh Johnson, John Lester, Anibel Sanchez, Jeff Weaver, Lance Lynn, Jordan Zimmerman, Tim Lincecum, and Cliff Lee.
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