A New Ace in Arizona Zack Greinke (SP - ARI) - You should not be surprised that we're predicting some regression to Greinke's 2015 season. He posted an unreal 1.66 ERA on his way to a 19-3 season with the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks shocked the MLB-world when they came out of nowhere to land Greinke this offseason. Greinke should still be one of the first pitchers off the board next year, but the move to Arizona won't help him much. To boot, his ERA was underrepresented by over a run last year, though even a 2.70 ERA would have been excellent. His 86.5% LOB from last year will surely regress closer to his career average of 74.9%. My main concern with Greinke will be monitoring his K rate, which fell from 9.21 K/9 to 8.08 K/9. He'll still keep hitters off balance, but us fantasy nuts like to see strikeouts and he's 50/50 to break 200 in 2016. Fantistics projects Greinke as the 12th best pitcher with a 3.05 ERA given the move to the new ballpark.
Golden Boy Paul Goldschmidt (1B - ARI) - Paul Goldschmidt ranks among the top in all five offensive categories (including 21 stolen bases). The only thing going against Goldie is that he's at a very deep position. Guys like Mitch Moreland and Brandon Belt (typically waiver wire guys at some point last year) each sport an OPS over 800. There aren't many positions (if any) that could offer that. But Goldie is a beast, particularly in roto leagues where he delivered 21 stolen bases from a corner infield spot, an enormous advantage. We project Goldie as the #1 first basemen with a .973 OPS and 34 HR, and another 100/100+ RS/RBI season.
Fantistics Player notes on several second basemen:
Cano, Robinson Came around in the 2nd
half with a 15/49/.331 line. Still relatively young at 33, but his home park
does him no favors.
Kendrick, Howie Batting Average, but not much else here for fantasy
purchases. Doesn't get on base enough to help RS, and likely slot in lineup
isn't conducive to RBIs.
Murphy, Daniel Superior Contact rate of 92%, with solid contact (31% Hard
Hits), will score more runs this year in better lineup.
Solarte, Yangervis Heavy Flyball hitter with good to average batted ball
speed, what keeps his BA decent is his contact rate which at 88% is considered
extremely good. RS numbers are muted because he doesn't take many walks.
Altuve, Jose 90% contact rate makes him a legit 290-300 hitter. He's
getting a little heavier on the GB/FB rate, once 1,9 to 1, now 1.3 to 1. This is
a little concerning as he doesn't have HR power. Additionally there was a step
back in SBs from 56 to 38 last year, but some of that can be explained by an
ailing hamstring in the 2nd half.
Pirela, Jose The 25-year-old has shown good contact and discipline skills
in the high minors and even double-digit pop, as well as the ability to get well
into the teens in stolen bases. He's basically a "put the ball in play and hope
something good happens" type of guy.
Segura, Jean Runs Scored count is likely to go up, as is average, based
on contact rate and heavy GB/FB rate of 2.4 to 1.
Kinsler, Ian HR/FB rate has dipped to an all-time low of 5%, expect that
to level back up to about 7-8%. Legit 290 hitter, but some will overpay, when he
really isn't better than lets say a David Murphy.
Forsythe, Logan Forsythe is an interesting case of a hitter that came
alive late in his career. He's always had above average batted ball speed, but
what turned his career around was his ability to recognize pitches better than
he had in the past. His contact rate is the same, but his ability to hit the
ball harder more often appears to be the difference, as his Hard Hit rate jumped
from 25% to 31% last season. That said his 323 BABIP is higher than it should be
so they'll likely be some regression in the BA, but his RBI rate could increase.
Zobrist, Ben Moves to a more friendly offensive environment, which should
net him more Runs Scored. At 35 though, we're not expecting an offensive
explosion, rather more of the same.
Walker, Neil Flyball hitter, moves to a slightly more favorable home
park. Not much should change in his stat line as he's been pretty consistent.
Pollock Took the Desert by Storm AJ Pollock (OF - ARI) - I wrote about AJ Pollock last off-season, mentioning that he was playing incredibly well in 2014 before his hand injury, and battled back to play in mid-September despite no playoffs on the horizon (that's what I call heart!). He rewarded owners with a 6.6 WAR last year, showcasing moderate power (20 HR) and great speed (39 SBs). He'll now be one of the first outfielders taken off the board this season, and for good reason. Pollock already flashes elite contact ratios, and now that he's developed some power, he could be a top 20 hitter or better for years to come. Pollock is the fifth ranked OF per Fantistics projections with a $36 auction value.
Peralta, the Silent Producer David Peralta (OF - ARI) - David Peralta had the quietest dominant season in 2015. His counting numbers weren't spectacular, but he posted an impressive .893 OPS for the year. It was another classic example of a breakout in an age 27 season. Heavy GB/FB rate makes him a legit 290-300 hitter. Both RBIs and RS we discounted last season, Was decent enough last season (.380 SLG against LHP) to be considered an everyday player in 2016. Legit HR/FB rate of 18% is supported by 104.5 BBS. Could surprise folks if he's able to get a little more lift on his swing. We like him as a potential under-the-radar pick for 2016, and he makes an excellent daily fantasy option in the right matchups.
Cuban Tomas Crisis Yasmany Tomas (3B - ARI) - I had some high expectations for Tomas last year as an underrated power hitter in a hitter's ballpark. He failed all expectations with an 88 wRC+. Going somewhat against him was the constant discussion of if he was a third basemen or an outfielder. But still, he never looked comfortable. His average last season of .273 seemed fortunate given his .354 BABIP.Below average contact rate of 74%, however heavy GB|FB rate of 2.4:1 puts a lot of balls in play with higher success rate to float his BA. Above average power with 395 distance on HRs and 104 BBS, and a 31% hard hit rate last season. 13% HR/FB ratio of 13% has some upward mobility as does RBI count. Tomas seems best left for the waiver wire until he can show a little bit of pop.
Daniel Nava (OF - LAA) - Daniel Nava will always hold a special place in my baseball heart as a Red Sox fan. This year, he looks to platoon in LF with Craig Gentry. Aside from 2015, Nava has been very effective against right-handed pitching. He could be a nice option in daily leagues where you can put him in for favorable matchups against righties. He'll never knock your socks off, but his career 119 wRC+ against righties can't be ignored coming off a down season.
Aroldis Chapman (RP - NYY) - Anyone drafting within the next week or two should be cautious with Aroldis Chapman. There is no doubting his skill set, but Robert Manfred commented that a suspension will be coming despite no criminal charges. No one is sure what to expect here, but given the backlash that the NFL received from domestic violence, I would not be shocked if this was a suspension that affected the first few scoring periods of 2016. We've toned down our projections on his saves to less than 80% of a season's total.
David Wright (3B - NYM) - This could be the year that we see David Wright be on the fantasy free agent market for the majority of the season. Health has always been an issue, and 2016 appears no differently. It seems that the Mets plan to have Wright play a maximum of 130 games, which includes no injury. Should Wright get hurt, we're talking about less than 115 games. It's tough to recommend such an inconsistent option. Fantistics has Wright listed as the 19th best 3B given the uncertain playing time. Wright is now an aging veteran, and I feel old.
Dexter Fowler (OF - CHN) - In a change of events, Dexter Fowler will not be going to the Orioles as first reported, but will instead return to the Cubs on a one year deal. It's been reported that he turned down a $30MM deal with the Orioles for the ssingle season deal in Chicago. The Cubs outfield is a bit crowded with Soler, Heyward, Schwarber, and Fowler, so there's not much of a guarantee of every day playing barring an injury. Fowler was a bit unlucky last year - his .308 BABIP was over 30 points less than his career average. We anticipate an uptick in performance, particularly now that he's back in the strong Chicago lineup.
Chris Coghlan (OF - OAK) - With the re-signing of Dexter Fowler to Chicago came the trade of Chris Coghlan. Coghlan has always been known for his splits (125 wRC+ vs. righties in 2015). But we have to knock him down a bit with the move from the favorable Chicago offense and ballpark into Oakland. Coghlan can be used in daily leagues where you can take advantage of splits, but otherwise he's best left on the waiver wire unless in the deepest of leagues
Domonic Brown (OF - TOR) - Former top prospect Domonic Brown received an invite to Toronto's spring training. I will always remember Brown for not living up to expectations, while having some real power. The thing is, I'm likely completely clouded by his May 2013, where he hit 12 home runs in the month. He had only 204 PA last season, so while I expect him in the Show this season, I think the majority of his time will be in AAA.
Pedro Alvaraz (1B - FA) - Pedro Alvarez has yet to find a team, which is intriguing to me. Alvarez has always been a one trick pony, but at only 29 years old, he still has a lot of baseball left in him. His 2016 with a wRC+ of 114 was actually slightly better than 2011 and 2012 when he hit 30 and 36 HRs. It would be interesting if he landed in a favorable home run park, because he could provide some serious power for cheap in 2016. Fantistics has him conservatively ranked for 24 home runs, though that could change once he signs somewhere.
Mark Teixeira (1B - NYY) - Teixeira indicated that he wanted to play until he was 40, another 5 seasons, in pinstripes. This stood out to me since he hasn't played more than 124 games since 2011, but still, let's give Tex the benefit of the doubt given his resurgent 2015. Fantistics thinks it will be difficult to match last year's power with 31 HR in 111 games. 23% HR/FB rate is considerably higher than his norm and not supported by his 102 BBS. On the other hand his contact rate improved last season, and his .255 BA was probably 10 points below where it should have been. Regardless even with better health, it's going to be hard to surpass last year HRs totals.
Noah Syndergaard (SP - NYM) - There were positive reports coming from the Mets spring training following a pitching session with Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard is just 23, so the sky is the limit. Fantistics projects another step forward for him in 2016, though there could be some ups and downs given his young age. Averaged 97.1 MPH on his fastball last season! Very good changeup -9 in differential has upside to the 10 k/9 and 12.2 Swinging K rate he posted last season. Elevated 14% HR/FB rate should regress, but the .280 BABIP against could rise. Only knock against him is the elevated 17.2 pitches per inning, which prevented him from going deep into games. Regardless, he has some nasty stuff and the early positive reports from spring training are encouraging.
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