The first Spring Training games were played yesterday. The leader in hits is the 19-year-old top prospect for the Padres. It's a great time of the year.
It's also time to get back to talking in what some think is a secret language, with terms like wOBA and xFIP. Those are tools that are used to evaluate players' performance and help project what they will do. If you need to brush up on the analytics terms, fangraphs.com has a good glossary.
A prime source you should use is the Insider Baseball: Fantistics Draft Advisory software. Now is the time to get it and follow the constant updates.
Nestor Cortes- P -NYY- A hamstring strain forced Cortes out of participation in the World Baseball Classic. He did toss live batting practice on Thursday and is expected to work in spring training games and be ready for the start of the season. Cortes will likely not repeat 2022's outstanding numbers (12-4 record and 2.44 ERA with 163 Ks in 158.1 IP.) His xFIP of 3.63 and career-low HR/FB ratio of 8.2% leaves a lot of room for regression. Being on the Yankees will help Cortes in the win column and his projected 3.87 ERA is not horrible, but it drops his value behind a lot of other starters.
Ben Gamel- OF- TB- The Rays signed Gamel to a minor league deal, but he has a good chance to make the major league roster. He is a LH hitter and Tampa Bay has a need there. In 2022 Gamel his 8 homers in 313 PAs against RH pitching. He slashed .252/.342/.409 against them. The ban of the shift may also help Gamel. In 2022 he slashed .238/.233/.310 without a shift against him on balls in play (43 PAs) and .302/.032/.396 with a shift (222 PAs.) So how does losing the shift help him? Gamel's BABIP with no shift was .233 while it was .302 with the shift. That's why teams kept shifting against him. In comparison, Gamel's career slash line with no shift is .344/.342/.439 while it is .318/.315/.425 into the shift.
Lance Lynn- P- CHW- Lynn's season is likely to start far better than 2022. He missed the first two months of the season with injury and began cold. Lynn only had 1 quality start in his first 7 outings of 2022. He had 10 in his final 14 starts. Lynn will get the start in today's Cactus League opener and is scheduled to go 2 or 3 innings. Since he will be with Team USA in the WBC, he has been stretched out further than normal for this point in Spring Training. Lynn finished 2022 with a 3.99 ERA, but with a 3.44 xFIP and a strong finish he has a good chance to start strong in 2023.
Spencer Turnbull- P- DET- Turnbull faced live hitters for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in July 2021. So far this spring his fastball has been hitting 94 mph, where it was before surgery. Turnbull had hit his stride before his injury, tossing a no hitter less than month before being done. He had a significant difference between his 2.88 ERA and 3.77 xFIP, so he was benefiting to an extent from good luck. Turnbull will probably have a spot in the Tigers rotation but can't be expected to pick up where he left off pre-surgery two seasons ago.
Donovan Solano- 2B- MIN- Solano was signed by the Twins to provide a veteran to hit against southpaws and provide position flexibility. Solano can play 1B, 2B, and 3B. In 2022, he slashed .301/.348/.422 in 89 PAs against LH pitching. His role will likely be, at best, an occasional starter and bat off the bench barring injury to others.
Hunter Brown- P- HOU- Brown is ranked as the #14 pitcher in the Baseball Prospect Central list on fantistics.com. He had a splash in his first MLB start last fall, tossing 6 shutout IP and allowing just 3 hits and a walk while striking out 5. Brown is likely to start 2023 with the Astros given an injury that will delay the start of the season for Lance McCullers, Jr. and the past track record of the Astros using a six-man rotation. He is projected to provide an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP in the neighborhood of 1.25, and slightly more than a K per inning. The big question is how many IP he will accumulate. That may become clearer as spring training progresses.
Jacob deGrom- P- TEX- The deGrom watch will be a regular feature this spring as a lot of eyes will be upon the high-risk, high-reward Texas free agent signee. He finally threw his first bullpen session on Thursday and reported no problems. He threw 22 fastballs and no breaking balls. Pitching coach Mike Maddux says that deGrom should be caught up soon with the other Rangers starters and is definitely on track for Opening Day. He is going to be under a microscope in the Cactus League.
Ryan Mountcastle- 1B- BAL- Mountcastle is poised to bounce back in 2023. The difference between his SLG of .423 and xSLG of .509 as well as between his wOBA of .316 and xwOBA of .362 were significant. He suffered a lot of bad luck last year and should be pushing 30 homers and see an increase in hos .250 BA from last year.
Carlos Santana- 1B- PIT- Santana was signed by the Pirates and will take over 1B for them. While he has definitely declined from his prime with Cleveland, he hit a respectable 19 homers in 506 PAs between the Royals and Mariners in 2022. Santana's .202 average was poor and a continuation of a trend that he has shown since the COVID year of 2020. However, he has also shown a trend in the same time period where he wOBA has been significantly lower than his xwOBA. This was not true earlier in his career, so that his 2023 average could be higher than the last few seasons.
Abraham Toro- 2B- MIL- Toro was part of the deal that sent Kolten Wong to Seattle and Jesse Winker to the Brewers. Toro had a sub-Mendoza-Line .195 average in 352 PAs last season but did hit 10 homers. He has 21 homers in 727 MLB PAs across the last two seasons. His average suffered from a .198 BABIP and his xwOBA of .284 was well above his wOBA of .246. While both numbers are pretty horrendous he has posted better at the AAA level. The switch hitter will likely get a chance to compete for the starting 2B job with Milwaukee. This spring will show if he is more than a AAAA player.
Jackson Merrill- SS- SD- Merrill made his MLB Spring Training debut in a big way, going 3-for-3 with a run scored. Merrill is the top prospect in the San Diego organization but hasn't played above A-Ball. He did have a strong Arizona Fall League season. Merrill's playing time was curtailed in the 2022 season due to a wrist injury. He is the #31 prospect among hitters according to Baseball Prospect Central on fantistics.com. Even a big spring won't get him on the major league squad. An eventual change in position may be in store for Merrill, but he is still projected to hit the majors in 2025.
Jesse Winker- OF- MIL- Winker may benefit from a change of scenery as well as a rebound from bad luck. His .219 average in Seattle in 2022 was impacted by a career-low .251 BABIP. His homer rate and SLG dropped dramatically from 2021. Still his xwOBA of .345 was decent and well above his wOBA of .313. American Family Field was more friendly to hitter across the board than T-Mobile Park so that should help Winker this season. He is projected to hit 20 homers and his average should improve as well.
Michael Brantley- OF- HOU- Last season Brantley saw his average dip to .288 from the above-.300 marks he posted for the prior 4 seasons. That was a result, at least in part of a dip in his BABIP to a low-for-him .311. Brantley did see his OBP rise to .370. He was also limited in playing time due to injuries and so only put up 5 homers in 277 PAs. Brantley's OPS of .786 was solid. His wOBA of .345 was below his xwOBA of .374. Most projections have him playing limited time, but if he stays healthy Brantley should hit double digits in homers and have an average around .300.
Alex Wood- P- SF- Wood has a spot in the Giants' rotation and seems to be recovered from the shoulder impingement that ended his 2022 season prematurely. He suffered from bad luck last year and ended up with a 5.10 ERA, well above his xFIP of 3.41. In Wood's penultimate and antepenultimate starts (there's your big words for the day) he allowed a total of 15 runs (all earned) and 5 homers in 7.2 IP on the road in Colorado and Minnesota. That skewed his season stats. Wood should put up much improved numbers in 2023.
Lucas Giolito- P- CHW- Giolito had some tough luck in 2022. His xFIP of 3.66 was actually lower than his 3.75 in 2021. Giolito's HR/9 dropped s midge from 1.36 to 1.34. His WHIP shot up from 1.10 to 1.44 due to an increase in BABIP from .269 to .340. Giolito's 4.90 did not reflect how he pitched last year. That should see a significant improvement in 2023 due to regression.
Alex Cobb- P- SF- Cobb turned in solid numbers in 2022, a 3.75 ERA, 9.08 K/9, and 1.30 WHIP. They could have been better if fortune had been more kind. Cobb had .336 BABIP and an xFIP of 2.89. Regression should help him lower his ERA and WHIP while his K/9 should stay at about 9.
