2009 DC Preview - 3B/Catchers

Third Base

The must have

Evan Longoria 970 – If Longoria comes anywhere near our projection: .290, 87 RS, 104 RBI’s, 34 HR, and 9 B, then he is a must have. In draft leagues Longoria is a bit of a risk because his high ADP (2.08) does not reflect his potential for an off year (K% of 26% and .38 EYE). For this game, though, he is not a risk for a couple of reasons. First of all, he is not overrated here. His ADP has him easily the 3rd best 3B option, but his DC salary has him 15th out of all 3B. Secondly, since he will be such a high percentage play, if he has a down year it shouldn’t hurt you too badly. Conversely, if he has a great year and you leave him off your squad, it will be incredibly difficult to overcome that, and therein lies the risk.

Possible x-factor

Chipper Jones 1300 – I like Jones a lot for this game for a few reasons. First of all, it is okay to take a few injury risks, since you can easily sub another capable body in for Jones on any given week or even use one of your 12 buys on a replacement if it appears Jones will miss an extended period of time. In draft leagues, Jones’ injury history makes me worried but not in this set-up. Secondly, Jones is productive when healthy. In fact, he is flat out dynamite. Just look at the upward trend in his FPI the past few seasons: .81/.87/.89/.94. Only Albert Pujols had a better FPI than Jones last season! Lastly, Jones is a hot starter, especially as of late. His April and May OPS’s last season were 1.145 and 1.152 respectively. In ’07 his OPS over the season’s first month was 1.055. Jones is the perfect guy to start with on your squad. If he plays the whole season it’s a bonus, but even if you jettison him after a hot April and May, he’ll be worth it.

Solid play

David Wright 1900 – Wright is this year’s most expensive player, and since you probably won’t be able to afford having him in every week I’ve downgraded him from a must play. Still, he is a solid play because you should be able to put him in on weeks when you have low priced pitchers or one of your other heavy hitters has an unfavorable schedule. Also, with A-Rod missing time, Wright becomes the clear cut best fantasy 3B. His average should go up this season. He hit .302 last year and that was with getting unlucky. His singles average was 20 points below his previous 3 year average, and that was with Wright hitting line drives 25.6% of the time, matching his career high set in ’05. When he is in, he will certainly boost your average (and power and pretty much everything). I concentrate on the average, because getting ahead early in that category may allow to more easily purchase a speed or power specialist down the line.

The others

Ryan Zimmerman 1040 – Zimmerman is a player people have been hoping breaks out for the past couple of seasons after he dazzled fantasy owners in 2006 with an outstanding rookie campaign. However, Zimmerman’s GB/FB ratio has kept him from developing his power, and that has led to disappointment. Simply put Zim puts the ball on the ground too much. He has a career GB/FB ratio of 1.21, and last season he hit ground balls 46.1% of the time. If this the year Zim gets more loft in his swing, it could mean huge things for fantasy owners.

Zimmerman along with Alex Gordon 880 and Edwin Encarnacion 860 are some young hitters who could breakout this season, and even if they don’t they are probably the best values at their respective positions. My suggestion is to start the year with Jones, Longoria, and Wright. If Jones goes down with injury or you want to add a 4th 3B add Zim, Gordon, or Encarnacion, depending on which one is headed to a breakout season.

Avoid

Garrett Atkins 1290 – Steep drop off in his EYE the past two seasons is concerning: 1.01 in ’06, .70 in ’07, and .40 in ’08. Chipper Jones is almost the same price and much less of a risk (performance wise), his EYE is in an upward trend: .82/1.09/1.48.

Kevin Kouzmanoff 700 – Every year I feel like people are predicting Kouzmanoff to break out. The fact is he plays half his games in a park extremely unfavorable to hitters and has horrible plate discipline (.17, K% of 21.5%) that is actually trending downwards. Pass.

Chone Figgins 1150 – It’s hard to take a player who offers virtually no power (1 HR and 22 RBI in 453 AB) and doesn’t even hit .300 (we have him projected at .284). Sure, the high RS totals are nice, but he isn’t even a top speed threat as his swipes are in steady decline (62/52/41/32). Not to mention he isn’t exactly durable, having only played in 115 games and 116 games respectively the past two seasons. I’ll get my speed somewhere else.

Catchers

I don’t suggest going naked at many positions, but catcher is the one position where I am going to do that, particularly since I suggest going cheap at this position. Sure, Brian McCann and Russell Martin are nice to have, but you can get two capable catchers this year for the combined salary of one of the top tier catchers.

Must haves

Matt Wieters 350 – Obviously this choice ultimately rests on whether or not the Orioles decide to give Wieters some more time to develop in the minors or allow him to break camp as the starting catcher. If Wieters is on the Opening Day roster, he’s on my team. He has an amazing combination of power and patience for such a young hitter. At high A ball (280 PA) he had an EYE of .94 and an AVG/OBP/SLG line of .345/.448/.576. Then, as with most young hitters, Wieters struggled with the jump to AA ball. Only Wieters didn’t struggle at all. In fact, he got better. In 250 PA, his EYE was 1.31 and he hit .365/.460/.625. His patience and improvement after making the leap from A+ ball to AA ball are encouraging signs that demonstrate Wieters could have immediate success at the Major League level. And for a salary of 350 thousand, it is impossible to pass on him. Wieters did struggle during Spring Training last year, but this year he is forcing the Orioles’ hand with a .471/.500/.824 line and zero strikeouts.

Ryan Doumit 640 – There are other good cheap catchers such as Chris Iannetta 570 and Mike Napoli 580, but none of them have the all around game that Doumit offers. Iannetta and Napoli are both batting average risks (particularly Napoli), and neither of them will score over 70 runs. Doumit, on the other hand, showed a decent amount of power (15 HR in 431 AB) last season, while scoring 71 runs and knocking in 69 RBI’s. He did all this while maintaining an average of .318. This year, with more at bats expected, he could approach 80 R/RBI’s and 20 HR. He probably won’t hit .318 again, but he is a safe bet to hit somewhere between .290 and .300 Compare that to McCann’s likely output, and you’ve got a dime’s worth less RBI’s but a dime’s worth more RS with an equivalent average. So, you are essentially paying McCann 350 (the exact salary of Wieters) thousand more for a handful of HR.

Guys to keep an eye on (aka guys to be aware of if Wieters starts the season at AAA)

I suggest taking another cheap catcher here. If you are taking a 3rd catcher, you can rotate him in without screwing up your team’s salary. If you are taking one until Wieters gets called up, your team’s salary will all be used (ie: you won’t have wasted salary b/c you started the year anticipating throwing out a catcher at 900,000 every week) if you pull the trigger on Wieters come May (in the case of an Evan Longoria type situation).

I think it comes down to Chris Iannetta 570, Mike Napoli 580, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia 430. Hopefully the karma gods won’t strike against me after I just dogged Iannetta and Napoli. I do like them, though, just not over Doumit. Anyways, these three seem like the most likely candidates for another cheap catcher. If you are going naked at Catcher, I suggest taking the one with the least amount of risk. Salty has potential and his swing has looked better this Spring, but how many at bats is he guaranteed? I’m also worried about his lack of power (3 HR in 198 AB’s last season) for a player who is also a batting average risk. So, he’s ruled out. In the battle if Iannetta vs. Napoli, I’m again going to be conservative. Last year, Napoli struck out 30.8% of the time. Iannetta also struck out a lot (27.6%) of the time. Not only is that 3% less, but Iannetta showed improvement, decreasing his K% by 1.8% and simultaneously increasing his BB% by 1.6% to give him an EYE of .61. Iannetta will be the full time starting catcher this season, and with a little help from Coors field he could match Napoli’s power output, and he comes with much less risk. Iannette is the pick.

Avoid

Victor Martinez 890 – I heard some grumblings that Victor may be worth it at this salary if he has a rebound year. Once again, this comes down to minimizing risk at a position that doesn’t offer much on the reward side of things. He is an injury risk, whose sudden decrease in power and some loss of patience is a concern. That’s the risk side. The reward side: he has a rebound season and his overall roto value is slightly more than McCann and Soto thanks to a .300+ BA. My point here is why take the risk with Victor, when you can have Soto at less risk? Victor’s optimistic projections won’t be that much better than Soto’s average projections. I don’t advise spending a lot on catchers, but if you are going to pay 890 on Martinez, why not pay a little more for a surer thing and grab Brian McCann 990 or Russell Martin 1000?