To contend and win in fantasy baseball you need to be on top of what's going on with all 30 major league teams. The position battles. The call-up's. The lineup switches. The hot and cold streaks. And if you challenge yourself on that front you unfortunately have to even follow the bad teams. It's easy to get excited about anyone in a lineup like Toronto or Baltimore. Trying to fire you up about the #5-hitter on the Phillies? That's much more difficult.
With the starting gun just about to click on the 2016 campaign, baseball has at least a half-dozen teams that look good for 90 losses. Philadelphia is in the midst of a massive tear down and rebuild. Milwaukee is just beginning their reckoning. Atlanta has done the trading and is now ready to see what their youth can do. Cincinnati has seemingly gone half-way with an entirely new pitching staff alongside a still competitive batting order. Colorado is Colorado ... never downright terrible, but not near a contending spot in the NL. And along those same lines, Oakland is doing their Oakland thing ... taking a collection of mismatched parts, trying to find platoon advantages, and hoping some unexciting veteran additions show enough juice before by midseason so that they can flipped for prospects.
Even the productive fantasy assets on these teams are seeing a downgrade in the minds of many. Joey Votto constantly gets dinged by the reasoning that he will be pitched around all summer. Freddie Freeman has the same issue down South. The Athletics might not have a single hitter or pitcher beyond Sonny Gray that fantasy players truly want on their squad. Rockies like Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, and Charlie Blackmon will always get love because of the Coors' effect, but all three of them are ordinary when playing at sea level. Philly? Ugh ... a lot like Oakland.
But I'm here to tell you that all six squads offer some overlooked and useable pieces for the upcoming season. With expectations lowered for each of these franchises, some decent hitters and hurlers are getting constantly bruised at draft tables. Here's a trip through each clubhouse with a spotlight shined on those who have slid way down the ADP board leading up to the start of the season ...
Atlanta Braves
A.J. Pierzynski (ADP #322) surprised everyone (Braves included) by hitting clean-up on over 200 occasions last year. He was productive with a shocking .300 batting average and produced numbers that most any catcher would take. At the very least, he makes for a very solid #2 catcher in two-catcher set-up. He's as good as some of the catchers who are 10-12 years his junior. ... Hector Olivera (ADP #313) is an old rookie. In fact, he's 31! He got a requisite cup of coffee at the end of last season and gave the Braves some hope. Watching him in the spring, you see a guy who has a clue at the plate and should find the gaps throughout the season. I wouldn't go so far as to predict a notable return on home runs, but he's an excellent bench grab. He could hit in the middle of the order and also brings outfield-infield eligibility to your squad. ... Ender Inciarte (ADP #192) is quite unlikely to improve on last year. But, man, if you can just hunt down 90% of that 2015, you'll have something special. Inciarte is your proto-typical lead-off man who gets on-base just enough. He has a high-contact approach and should be a given for 20+ steals. Even a bad Braves offense is going to score about 575 runs and Inciarte can pick up 75 of those with anything approaching a .340 OBP. ... Aroydis Vizcaino (ADP #245) could have to sit and wait behind Jason Grilli. As of this writing, Atlanta has yet to play their hand on which guy will get the 9th inning. I (like so many others) lean towards Grilli because if you give him the final three outs, you also goose his value on the trade market. In other words, it makes total sense for Grilli to be the guy, right now. But, here's the 'but.' Grilli is not a picture of health and could easily end up sidelined. That would make Vizcaino the fireman and if he were still available, you would be prepping for an intense waiver war. Wouldn't you rather just draft him and sit on him? He can hit the high-90s/low-100s and if he has his control, you'll see at least a K-per-inning. Any saves he provides would be the cherry on top.
Cincinnati Reds
Eugenio Suarez (ADP #274) hit 13 homers last year ... in under 400 plate appearances ... as a shortstop. When it comes to backing up a terrible position, Suarez is an excellent selection. He enters this year with a more defined role, replacing Todd Frazier as Cincy's new man on the hot corner. I don't see any breakout potential and his OBP could end up in the toilet with all the extra playing time, but 15-20 homers is totally possible. And I'm saying that about a guy who is landing near round-23 in 12-team leagues. ... Anthony DeSclafani (ADP #258) was looking swell until he was diagnosed with a 'slight' oblique injury at the end of camp. Many fantasy wise guys were calling him their sleeper of '16 before the set-back. He could still reach that mark, but now you won't have to reach on him. When healthy he throws hard, does a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground, and might be able to post 8.5 K/9. Wins are another matter, of course, but when you're discussing the 7th or 8th pitcher on your roster you're mostly looking for the skillset. DeSclafani has that. ... J.J. Hoover (ADP #275)/Tony Cingrani (ADP #570) make the list because either could end up as the 9th inning boss for the Reds. Hoover is the favorite, right now, but I fear him a bit because he's been susceptible to the four-bagger throughout his career (20 homers allowed in his past 120+ innings of work). He had a run of mid-season domination last summer and has followed that with a nice spring encore (0 ER in 5.2 IP). He's totally worth taking as your 3rd reliever. As for Cingrani, I'm in love with the idea of the lefty being able to come in and face just 2-3 batters per outing. His first real taste of relief work in the bigs was mostly a miss last year, but his arm is so big that he could still fine tune himself into a very good LOOGY or even a three-out man in the 8th or 9th innings. Health has been a problem throughout his short career. You don't have to draft him, but if Hoover is having any sort of problems in April you'll want to try and stash Cingrani.
Colorado Rockies
Ben Paulsen (ADP #309)/Mark Reynolds (ADP #436) should be an even platoon at first base with Paulsen seeing the righties and Reynolds facing the lefties. Frankly, you could roster both in an NL-only, daily changes league, and end up with production of 40 homers and 110 RBIs. For those in mixed leagues, you're looking at little more than a reserves' round selection. Paulsen isn't a great homerun hitter, but his overall game profiles better than the now-aging Reynolds. ... Jorge De La Rosa (ADP #519) is forever overlooked because of where he calls home. But, did you realize that De La Rosa is actually successful in his yard? His career marks are impressive at Coors. In 93 starts, he sports a strong 48-16 record with an ERA of 4.16, plus 8 K's/9. Beyond that, he has had 39 total victories in the last three years. He's perpetually underrated and makes for a fairly good 8th or 9th SP in large leagues ... Jason Motte (ADP #438)/Jake McGee (ADP #211) are both relievers that could end up with 30+ saves. Motte has done on a couple of occasions and McGee has always shown signs of being that sort of guy. McGee is set for the first shot, but if he struggles in April, I would guess that Motte will get a definite look. Considering the draft day cost I'd much rather go in on Motte whose name is being called a full 20 rounds after his teammate.
Milwaukee Brewers
Domingo Santana (ADP #283) has leash, power, and a ballpark that favors his game. Admittedly, he's also a true threat to lead the majors in whiffs this season. I think that 200+ punch outs is an absolute possibility. Usually, that would spell doom for a young guy, but things are different in Milwaukee this year. The Brewers have to see what they have for the future and that means a healthy Santana should be a lock for 500 plate appearances. His minor league showings (108 total bombs in under 2,600 at-bats) are evidence of legit 25-home run potential. ... Jonathan Villar (ADP #329) is considered a place-holder until prospect, Orlando Arcia, is ready. But, according to most everyone who follows the team, that call-up is a late-summer move. As long as Villar doesn't totally fail he should get a load of starts and opportunities to hit and run. He's collected 42 career steals in very limited chances (less than 200 total games over three years) and figures to be in the market for 20 with the Brew Crew this year. Don't we all love cheap steals? Especially at shortstop? ... Scooter Gennett (ADP #455) started to gather admirers going into last season and then face-planted. Now, he's mostly a forgotten man. But, the Brewers still remember him and they are set to give him another shot. He's had an excellent run in spring camp with 10 hits in 20 at-bats and has earned a spot near the top of the Milwaukee order. As a middle infield back-up you could do worse. ... Aaron Hill (ADP #481) has totally fallen off the map for fantasy players. Even after watching his power wither last season in Arizona, Hill has still averaged a homer every 28 at-bats over the past seven seasons. He has a full-time gig at 3B and could surprise on his way to a HR total near 20 this year.
Oakland Athletics
Danny Valencia (ADP #242) was a 2nd-half monster for fantasy players in 2015. Those who struck early and snagged him off the waiver wire were rewarded with a 47-game run that featured 11 homers, 37 RBIs, and an OPS that neared-.890. He's back in the plans at 3B for the A's this year and should be amped for his first real chance to start since way back in 2011 when he was with Minnesota. For a guy who has a .740 OPS over six seasons, he should take advantage of his run production spot in the Oakland batting order (he'll hit clean-up!). ... Chris Coghlan (ADP #451)'s move to Oakland from the North side of Chicago went mostly unremarked. As of now that's totally fine, but I feel there will be a point this season where Coghlan has forced his way into our minds. He's currently a back-up in the A's outfield, but with the ability to play all three positions of those spots, plus do work around the infield, he will find his way into the A's starting nine. His last two years have featured a .800 OPS (and that's over 825 ABs). In other words, he's still a productive hitter who has every chance of being a double-figure man in both homers and steals. ... Ryan Madson (ADP #380) is the man that I like in the Oakland bullpen. It's definitely not Sean Doolittle who has been battling arm issues. Madson hasn't been the closer in forever (if ever, to tell you the truth), but after an incredibly strong return to relevance last year, I believe he's a major sleeper for 25 saves in 2016. His K-stuff wasn't totally back last year (8.2 per 9), but few opposing hitters made hard contact off him as he crafted a WHIP under-1. He's an excellent bargain grab for your fantasy bench.
Philadelphia Phillies
Ryan Howard (ADP #422)/Darin Ruf (ADP #518) are a lot like the combo in Denver. Combined, they should be well-over 40 homers and over 100 RBIs. Again, if you're in a league where you can make changes daily, you could platoon your way to some fine numbers. If I had to choose one, I'd actually go in the direction of Ruf. Howard is an injury waiting to happen and Ruf would get the work in such a circumstance. He has major faults and could be a negative on batting average, but his power and spot in the batting lineup makes him a low-end asset for those looking for some very cheap pop. ... J.P. Crawford (ADP #426) appears to be on the Jimmy Rollins track. Rollins debuted with the Phils at the age of 21, just as they were in the midst of a major (and, eventually, successful) rebuild. Crawford should do the same at the age of 20 ... it will just take until July. He's not necessarily a good draft pick at this point. But, if you are in a lurch at the SS position when June rolls around, make a stash of Crawford. With the lack of talented options at the position, he could be offer a 2nd half payoff. ... Peter Bourjos (ADP #550) is has burned many of us over the past few years of play. But, with this awful team, he's a starter. He could finally turn the power/speed combo belief into fact with health and opportunity. ... Vincent Velasquez (ADP #326) has a big-time arm and we learned earlier this week that he will be a part of the Philly rotation. He'll have growing pains, but he's worth a late stab in your draft. Understand there will be an innings limit come September. ... Andrew Bailey (ADP #427)/David Hernandez (ADP #300) are both unflattering options for the 9th inning, but, hey, someone has to close the 65 games that Philadelphia is going to win. Bailey gets the first shot. His health is always an issue, but if you select him as the 30th closer off the board it's totally worth it. Hernandez had an injury early in camp and never got to take advantage of the assumed first shot he was set to receive. It's not the worst thing in the world to hand-cuff these two (especially if you sit out on the top 20 closers) in the latter rounds of your draft.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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