Lift Me: Players that could see a rise in HRs in 2016
Hit the ball hard and good things happen! As I wrote in a recent article, the correlation last year between Hard Hit % and HR/FB rate was approximately +.66 (very correlated). In that article I identified players that had superior hard hit rates, but their HR/FB rates did not necessarily translate last season. Today I'd like to take it a step further and look at those players that 1. have higher than average Hard Hit Rates, and 2. have a higher than average GB/FB rate (tend to be ground ball hitters). The premise: if these players can start elevating their swing more toward industry average, they could see a jump in home runs in 2016.
We know that hitters tend to elevate their swing as they mature, especially those hitters that are no longer in danger of losing playing time because of poor on base averages. Groundballs tend to have a higher likelihood of finding success, while flyballs have a higher likelihood of not (being caught). When hitters find themselves in the comfort zone of their career, they tend to take more chances on elevating their swing as extra base hits and homerun equate to increased production, which of course elevates a player's value.
Below is a list of players that have a heavy GB/FB rate of greater than 1.5 (1.3 is mean), and better than norm Hard Hit rate (>.28). The list is strictly sorted by GB/FB rate, and it doesn't consider that the younger players are more likely to lift their stroke as they mature, while the older players....not so much. Some other things to consider is that some of these players might hit less HRs than they did in 2015, as their HR/FB rate may have been unjustly elevated.
Players that could see a rise in HRs in 2016:
Age | P | Player | Abs | BA | Contact% | GB/FB | HR/FB | Hard Hit |
23 | OF | Christian Yelich | 476 | 0.300 | 0.80 | 4.2 | 12.5% | 0.33 |
24 | OF | Yasmany Tomas | 406 | 0.273 | 0.74 | 2.4 | 13.0% | 0.31 |
25 | 1B | Eric Hosmer | 599 | 0.297 | 0.81 | 2.1 | 15.1% | 0.32 |
32 | 2B | Robinson Cano | 624 | 0.287 | 0.83 | 2.0 | 15.9% | 0.32 |
28 | 1B | Pedro Alvarez | 437 | 0.243 | 0.71 | 2.0 | 32.5% | 0.38 |
27 | OF | David Peralta | 462 | 0.312 | 0.78 | 2.0 | 17.7% | 0.35 |
29 | C | Francisco Cervelli | 451 | 0.295 | 0.82 | 1.9 | 7.3% | 0.31 |
28 | SS | Jung-ho Kang | 421 | 0.287 | 0.77 | 1.8 | 16.9% | 0.34 |
32 | OF | Shin-Soo Choo | 555 | 0.276 | 0.76 | 1.8 | 18.8% | 0.32 |
27 | OF | A.J. Pollock | 609 | 0.315 | 0.85 | 1.7 | 13.2% | 0.34 |
31 | OF | Hanley Ramirez | 401 | 0.249 | 0.82 | 1.7 | 19.2% | 0.31 |
31 | OF | Ryan Braun | 506 | 0.285 | 0.79 | 1.6 | 20.5% | 0.36 |
24 | OF | Marcell Ozuna | 459 | 0.259 | 0.75 | 1.6 | 9.3% | 0.35 |
29 | C | Jonathan Lucroy | 371 | 0.264 | 0.87 | 1.5 | 7.6% | 0.35 |
25 | OF | George Springer | 388 | 0.276 | 0.70 | 1.5 | 18.8% | 0.33 |
28 | 1B | Jose Abreu | 613 | 0.290 | 0.77 | 1.5 | 19.7% | 0.34 |
24 | OF | Michael Taylor | 472 | 0.229 | 0.69 | 1.5 | 14.6% | 0.31 |
28 | OF | Michael Brantley | 529 | 0.310 | 0.93 | 1.5 | 9.9% | 0.31 |
29 | OF | Lorenzo Cain | 551 | 0.307 | 0.83 | 1.5 | 11.2% | 0.32 |
Christian Yelich Yelich continues to be content in being an on base machine, as his 4 to 1 Ground ball to flyball ratio keeps him in the 290-300 range. What's under the hood though is a power hitter waiting to be uncovered. Yelich has superior bat speed as evidenced by his 105.3 BBS and 407 distance on his HRs. Couple this with a 33-37% hard hit rate, and we're looking at a hitter that could be and should be a #3 hitter if he makes the proper adjustments. With both youth and solid contact skills, Yelich is a keeper sleeper for a breakout in HRs at some point in his career.
Yasmany Tomas Below average contact rate of 74%, however heavy GB|FB rate of 2.4:1 puts a lot of balls in play with higher success rate to float his BA. Above average power with 395 distance on HRs and 104 BBS, and a 31% hard hit rate last season. HR/FB ratio of 13% has some upward mobility as does RBI count. Tomas only hit 9 HRs last season, but with regular playing time and a slight elevation in his swing we could be looking at a 20 HR guy.
Eric Hosmer Hosmer is on the verge of breaking out. Can easily become a 30+ HR guy, as his BBS on his HRs is top 5 (107). Still however he doesn't get enough balls into the air, his 2.1 to 1 GB to FB ratio is keeping his power muted. Still needs to overcome LHP (.395 SLG), before he becomes that legit 4 category stud.
Robinson Cano Came around in the 2nd half with a 15/49/.331 line. Still relatively young at 33, but his home park does him no favors. There might be a few more HRs in 2016, but Cano is no longer a 30HR guy in a pitchers ballpark.
Pedro Alvarez Improved considerably against LHP in 2015, seeing his SLG against rise from .282 to .433. BA is always a risk here however as his subpar 71% contact rate doesn't leave enough opportunities to get on base. Any elevation in his swing will come at the price of possible decreased playing time.
David Peralta Heavy GB/FB rate makes him a legit 290-300 hitter. Both RBIs and RS we discounted last season, Was decent enough last season (.380 SLG against LHP) to be considered an everyday player in 2016. Legit HR/FB rate of 18% is supported by 104.5 BBS. Could surprise folks if he's able to get a little more lift on his swing and be a 20+ HR guy in Arizona.
Francisco Cervelli .295 BA is not sustainable, as his 359 BABIP is likely to regress. That said his 82% contact rate is superior at his position, as is his 31% Hard Hit rate. A mid teens HR count is well within his reach.
Jung-ho Kang Displayed superior BBS of 107 on HRs last season with 409 distance. Couple this with his 34% Hard Hit rate and we're looking at a 20+ HR shortstop in 2016. A moderate 1.8:1 GB|FB ratio keeps his average in 270-280 range despite a 77% contact rate.
Shin-Soo Choo Went on a 2nd half tear with his .343 BA and .560 slug. Much of it was propelled by his 22% HR/FB rate, on a rather pedestrian 103 BBS. Still struggles against LHP, which limits his upside to LHP only. The 20+ HRs from 2015 are legit, but there's not likely to be a big jump in elevation or HR count for the 33 year old Choo.
A.J. Pollock Displays a rare combination of bat speed (34 hard hit %) and contact (85%), could be a 20/100/100 guy in the middle of the order, but at leadoff, the SB tradeoff (39) is worth the loss in RBIs. Pollock is likely to transform into a 30 HR guy down the line, but batting leadoff, he's being asked to get on base for the time being.
Hanley Ramirez Was on his way to a career season in the power category before injuries sidetracked his season. Expected to open up healthy, but as we know it's hard for him to stay healthy. Year after year Hanley is one of the leaders in batted Ball speed, and that along with his 82% contact rate, plays well in his home park. Risky, but rewarding. His 1.7 GB/FB rate was considerably higher than it's been in the past, if he's healthy and returns to his 1.30 league average, he could be a 25-30 HR guy in 2016.
Ryan Braun HR/FB rate took a big jump last season back to his PED years of 22%. Assuming he's clean, this is a promising sign as his bat speed picked up after the lull of 2013 and 2014.. Solid 80% contact rate for power guy. His 1.6:1 GB:FB rate on 2016 was on the high end of his career norm, but without much protection in the lineup around him expected in 2016, there's little reason to expect a power surge.
Marcell Ozuna As he exhibited in 2014, Ozuna has breakout potential written all over him. Superior bat speed as measured by his 105.5 BBS on HRs and 35% Hard Hit Rate. 75% contact rate is obviously a concern for BA, but he maintains a good GB/FB mix of 1.5:1. Any upward shift in his swing could make him a mid 20s HR guy in 2016.
Jonathan Lucroy Lucroy battled several injuries last season, which totally derailed his campaign. Still in his prime at 30 YO, we expect a nice bounce back season from Lucroy this year. Superior 87% contact rate, 35% Hard Hit rate, and underperforming 7.6 HR/FB rate of 2015, makes him a sneaky play for 20 HRs in 2016.
George Springer Superior batted ball speed of 105.6 on HRs, and 33% Hard Hit rate last season. In a partial season, he was able to reduce his K rate from 33% to 24%, which is notable and a very positive sign for a player entering his 26th year. Because there's almost an even split between his HRs and Doubles, he's not the type of hitter that's going to drive in a ton of runs. However he's a solid play for mid 20 HRs, and possibly 30ish if he starts to elevate his swing.
Jose Abreu 21% ISO hitter with a middle of the road mix of groundballs (1.5:1 GB|FB ratio) and above average 35% Hard Hit rate, keep Abreu in the + range with his BA. A perennial lock for 30+ HRs and 100 RBIs, but a 6% BB rate keeps his RS expectation below 90.
Michael Brantley 10% HR/FB rate has a lot of room for upside, as his 104 BBS commands a 14-15% rate. Also his 68 RS was depressed based on his OBP, but his torn labrum surgery/recovery could keep him out for April. Has 20+ potential with 500 ABs, and 30+ in future years if he can shift the balance of his GB/FB rate to league average.
Lorenzo Cain Finally starting to lift the ball as he moves away from his heavy groundball rates, and power numbers are fueling his RBI count. What was surprising was the uptick in the number of balls he hit with authority last year. Consider that his Hard Hit% went from 22 to 32. Not sure what he figured out, but if he can repeat, then his BA is sustainable. However the RS count was inflated by about a dozen last season as his OBP does not support 100 RS. If his progression continues with his GB/FB rate, then he could potentially be a 20+ HR hitter.
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Mike
Mar 26, 16 at 11:39 AM
Just the type of article that sets Fantistics apart from the average; blah blah blah stuff found on most of the big sites (you know them) and also heard on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Channel!
Well done Anthony! As always has been..you are ahead of the curve! I'll just smile to myself when in a few months from now I'll hear the regular talking heads on SXM start quoting your stuff!
My only recommendation would be to include the player's age as a column. Otherwise...WELL DONE!
Mike
Anthony Perri
Mar 26, 16 at 11:39 AM
Mike, I've added the age column to the grid. Thanks for the support, much appreciated!