First Pitch - May 18, 2007 - Pitching Category Mashup (K/BB and QS%)

May 17, 2007

style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Pitching Category Mashup (K/BB and
QS%)

Good
morning everybody.Â For today's First
Pitch we are going to do something a little off the wall -- and perhaps mathematically
unsound - and mash together a couple of key pitching categories to come up with
a sort of uber-statistic for gauging starting pitchers. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â My premise is that we know Quality Start
Percentage (QS%) is a very useful indicator of a starting pitcher's worth. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â (Even though earned runs are to some degree
out of the pitcher's immediate control, I digress and admit its worth as a
measure.)Â In addition, I think that K/BB
ratio is one of the most important statistics for a pitcher. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â href="http://www.fantistics.com/baseball00/M-Reference-KBB.htm">Past research
has shown that the higher the K/BB ratio, the lower the ERA and WHIP. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â So, why not combine these two together, and
see what falls out?

In order to
qualify, a pitcher needed at least 4 games started this season. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â The average (QS%) * (K/BB) for all pitchers that
qualified was 1.26.Â Here are the
pitchers that were more than 75% better
than average with regard to this new statistic so far this season. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Stats are through games of 05/16/2007.

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style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>W	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>L	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ERA	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>WHIP	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>QS%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>K/BB	*style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>(QS%) (K/BB)**
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Lilly, Ted style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CHCÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.53	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.900	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.88	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6.0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>5.25
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Byrd, Paul style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CLEÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.49	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.241	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.67	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>5.11
w:st="on">Colon style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>, Bartolo style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â ANA	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.66	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.062	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.80	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>5.00
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sabathia, C.C. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CLEÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.03	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.286	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.75	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.8	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>4.35
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Shields, James style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â TBÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.13	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.895	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.75	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>4.05
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Peavy, Jake style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â SDÂ Â	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.52	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.938	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.88	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.9	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>3.40
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hudson, Tim style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â ATLÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.77	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.924	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.00	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>3.31
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Bonderman, Jeremy style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â DETÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.20	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.222	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.57	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>3.27
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Johnson, Randy style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â ARIÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.80	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.133	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.60	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>3.17
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Halladay, w:st="on">Roy Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â TOR	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.37	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.162	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.75	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>3.17
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Haren, Dan style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â OAK style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.64	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.961	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.89	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>3.05
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Meche, Gil style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â KCÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.91	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.190	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.89	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.9	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>2.61
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Smoltz, John style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â ATLÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.19	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.298	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.89	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.8	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>2.51
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Beckett, Josh style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â BOSÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.66	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.026	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.63	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.9	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>2.45
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Lackey, John style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â ANAÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.70	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.294	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.63	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.8	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>2.40
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Schilling, Curt style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â BOS style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.64	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.250	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.63	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>2.33
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hamels, Cole style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â PHIÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.46	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.317	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.63	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>2.30
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Maddux, Greg style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â SDÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.20	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.026	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.50	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>2.21
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Snell, Ian style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â PITÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.38	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.170	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.88	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>2.21

According
to our new measure, Ted Lilly is
clearly the best starting pitcher in baseball so far this season. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â There are some expected names here, like style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Sabathia, Peavy, Halladay, style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Smoltz, Schilling, etc.Â But also
notice that some lesser-heralded starters are having excellent starts backed up
by strong skills.Â These are guys like style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Byrd, Shields, Meche, and style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Snell. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â The other thing to notice is that all the
pitchers on this list have elite-level K/BB ratios, so they should all be
considered good bets for continued success.

Here are
the pitchers that have been strictly
average (within +/- 15% of the average) with regard to this new statistic
so far this season.Â

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style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>W	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>L	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ERA	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>WHIP	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>QS%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>K/BB	*style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>(QS%) (K/BB)**
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Silva, Carlos style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â MINÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.00	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.381	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.71	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.43
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Robertson, Nate style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â DETÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.62	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.369	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.63	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.35
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Perez, Oliver style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â NYM style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.00	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.119	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.43	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.32
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Danks, John style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CHWÂ Â	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.33	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.302	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.50	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.27
w:st="on">Maine style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>, John style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â NYMÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.15	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.252	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.75	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.25
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Mitre, Sergio style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â w:st="on">FLA style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.18	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.182	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.50	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.25
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Tejeda, Robinson style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â w:st="on">TEX style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.87	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.328	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.57	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.23
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Marquis, Jason style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CHCÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.22	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.968	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.75	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.6	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.17
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>De La Rosa, Jorge style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â KCÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.68	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.247	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.50	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.17
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ortiz, Ramon style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â MINÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.89	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.261	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.63	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.8	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.13
w:st="on">Wakefield style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>, Tim style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â BOSÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.41	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.147	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.75	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.13
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Carmona, Fausto style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CLEÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.12	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.240	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.83	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hirsh, Jason style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â w:st="on">COL style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.99	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.329	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.63	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.8	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Vazquez, Javier style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CHWÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.86	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.150	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.43	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.6	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Kazmir, Scott style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â TB	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.96	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.380	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.50	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Pettitte, Andy style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â NYYÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.68	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.411	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.75	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.09
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Garcia, Freddy An. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â PHI	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.17	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.500	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.33	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.08
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Glavine, Tom style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â NYMÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.31	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.215	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.67	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.6	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.07
w:st="on">Garland style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>, Jon style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CHWÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.44	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.987	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.71	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>1.07

Now this
list is a little more interesting.Â Who
do we think is really good, but according to this measure is merely
average?Â Some of the names that jump out
at me are Vazquez, style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Kazmir, Pettitte, Garcia, style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Glavine, and w:st="on">Garland. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â In most of their cases they still have strong
K/BB ratios but are hurt by mediocre QS%.Â
Some of the trendier starters right now are John Maine and Fausto
Carmona, both of whom should inspire some caution due to sub-2.0 K/BB
ratios.

Here are
the pitchers that have been significantly worse
than average (75% or more) with regard to this new statistic so far this
season.Â

style='width:452.0pt;margin-left:4.65pt;border-collapse:collapse;mso-padding-alt:
0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>

style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>W	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>L	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ERA	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>WHIP	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>QS%	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>K/BB	*style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>(QS%) (K/BB)**
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Tavarez, Julian style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â BOSÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6.60	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.567	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.17	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.8	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.30
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Igawa, Kei style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â NYY	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7.63	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.598	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.20	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.30
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hensley, Clay style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â SD	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7.62	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.047	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.33	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.9	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.29
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Maholm, Paul style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â PITÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.67	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.435	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.13	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.27
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Redman, Mark style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â ATL	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10.62	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.115	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.20	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.27
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Armas, Tony style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â PITÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8.76	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.230	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.17	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.20
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ponson, w:st="on">Sidney style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â MIN	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6.93	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.885	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.14	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.19
w:st="on">Chico style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>, Matt style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â WASÂ Â	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.59	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.862	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.13	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.14
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Loewen, Adam style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â BAL	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.56	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.747	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.17	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.8	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.14
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Williams, Jerome style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â WASÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7.20	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.733	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.17	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.8	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.14
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Pelfrey, Mike style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â NYM	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6.53	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.747	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.17	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.8	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.13
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sanchez, w:st="on">Anibal Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â FLA	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.80	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.067	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.17	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.12
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ohka, Tomo style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â TORÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.52	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.511	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.13	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.8	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Patterson, John style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â WAS	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7.47	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.947	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.14	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Weaver, Jeff style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â SEA	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>14.32	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.591	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.00	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.7	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.00
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Rasner, Darrell style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â NYYÂ	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.28	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.419	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.00	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.4	style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>0.00

Hopefully
none of these guys is busy destroying your fantasy roster right now. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â (I personally swore off Jeff Weaver after last season...so I feel real good about that.) style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â I know Loewen
is hurt now, but his 3.56 ERA was clearly not telling the true story of his
worth.Â Same goes for style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Rasner, who managed zero quality starts
but still managed a 3.28 ERA.Â The one
guy on this list that I would hold out any real hope for would be style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Paul Maholm due to his K/BB ratio. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Otherwise, steer clear. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Not only are their skills lacking, but they
don't have the ability to produce quality starts either, which means wins are
also very unlikely.Â Move along...nothing
to see here...

Currently 2.80/5
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Rating: 2.8/5 (2200 votes cast)

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1 Comment

Sully

May 17, 07 at 12:31 PM

Hi, Intriguing article. But how does this formula fit in/compare to the Projection Software and comparing current FPI with projected?

Can your new formula be used as say a ranking of above average pitchers to average and below so as to get or trade for the better pitchers?

I'm curious about the comment that says that Ted Lilly is the current best SP. I don't see Oswalt on the lists? Omission?

Where can one find the complete listing?

Thanks for stimulating are brains!!!

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