First Pitch - April 20, 2007 - Adjusted Reliever ERA (R-ERA)

Apr 19, 2007

style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK2'>Hello
everybody.Â As I watched in horror at
another craptacular performance from the Phillies bullpen, an idea rattled
around in my head.Â Part of the problem
we have as fantasy analysts is that we are in some situations constrained by
the statistics we use.Â In many cases
(obviously) statistics do not tell the full picture. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â The biggest example of this in the fantasy
baseball world might be the fact that the great majority of leagues care only
about pitching and hitting, but not defense.Â
This can present a problem for fantasy analysis through statistics
because we can't quantify the fact that a player is great defensively and as
such may get more at-bats than they would normally get if those decisions were
based solely on offensive production.Â
The manager of the team and coaches know this, but you can't get that
level of information by looking at the hitting and pitching stats we are used
to.

Since I'm thinking
primarily about relief pitchers here, I thought it would be an interesting
exercise to examine the concept of Inherited
Runners Scored (IRS).Â Continuing
with the line of thought from the opening paragraph...how many times have you
seen a reliever with a sparkling ERA, only they ALWAYS seem to come into a game
and give up runs?Â The thing is, those
earned runs scored by inherited runners are charged to the pitcher who caused
them to be on the bases, as opposed to the guy who let them score. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â I'm not suggesting it should be otherwise,
but I AM suggesting that we might be able to gain some insight by looking at
which relievers allow a lot of those inherited runners to score. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â After all, the relief pitcher has a very
specific job description, and part of that description is coming into the game
in pressure situations and preventing runners from scoring.

My theory is that
by adding Inherited Runners Scored to the ERA calculation for relief pitchers,
we can gain a fuller picture of relievers' overall effectiveness. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â This will not replace other important
statistical measures like K/9, K/BB, or others, but I think it can be a useful
way of looking at the data.Â If I'm a
major league manager, and one of my relievers allows a high percentage of
inherited runners to score...I don't give a darn if that guy has a 1.25 ERA. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â His playing time could be in jeopardy, and
he's probably going to be used less in key situations. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â So, couldn't the same be true for a fantasy
team?Â

Please note, the
intent of the statistics today is not to suggest that reliever's ERA can be
predicted by adding Inherited Runners Scored, but rather to provide a little
more insight into their overall effectiveness as a reliever, which in turn
could lead to increases or decreases in playing time. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Consider it just something else to think about
when evaluating a relief pitcher.

In terms of the
data population, I thought that 3-year averages would be a good place to
start.Â I took all relievers who averaged
at least 35 IP over the last three seasons OR averaged at least 10 save
opportunities over the last three seasons.Â
I then simply calculated the qualifying player's ERAs with Inherited
Runners Scored added to the equation (ER + IRS)*9/IP. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â I then measured the difference between a
reliever's actual ERA and their adjusted Reliever ERA (R-ERA) in terms of a
percentage.

Below are the 20
relievers who had the biggest percentage increase in their ERAs when Inherited
Runners Scored were added to the mix.

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Among the notables
on the list above are a couple of setup men widely considered capable of
closing, such as Joel Zumaya and style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Mike Gonzalez. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Also making the list are a couple of current
closers, Chris Ray and style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Dan Wheeler. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â This doesn't necessarily mean you should jump
ship on these guys, but be aware of the facts.Â
At the top of the list is a guy that has been speculated as a possible
closer for Florida,
Taylor Tankersley. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â If you add IRS to his ERA calculation, his
ERA doubles.

Since the first
table included all relievers who qualified, I thought it might also be
beneficial to look at a population of players that includes primary closers (or
those who have been primary closers at some point over the last three
seasons).Â Below are the 10 relievers who
averaged 15 save opportunities or more (in addition to meeting the 35 IP
criteria) and had the biggest percentage increase in their ERAs when Inherited
Runners Scored were added to the mix.

style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ERA	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>R-ERA	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>DIFF	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>%DIFF
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ray, Chris style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â BAL	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.70	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.39	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1.69	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-63%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Saito, Takashi style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â LA	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.07	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.10	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1.04	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-50%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Gordon, Tom style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â PHI	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.58	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.75	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1.17	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-45%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> w:st="on">Burgos, AmbiorixÂ NYM	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.74	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6.85	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-2.11	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-44%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Putz, J.J. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â SEA	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.49	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.97	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1.48	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-42%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Cordero, Francisco style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â MIL	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.13	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.38	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1.25	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-40%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Street, Huston style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â OAK	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.41	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.37	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.96	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-40%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Graves, Danny style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â COL	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.91	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6.70	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1.79	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-36%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Rodriguez, Francisco style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â ANA	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.05	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.77	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.72	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-35%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ryan, B.J. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â TOR	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.00	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.70	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.70	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-35%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Rivera, Mariano style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â NYY	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.75	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.33	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.58	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-33%

Notice the
difference in the ranges of %DIFF in this list compared to the first one. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â They are much lower (except for style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Chris Ray, who appears on both
lists).Â This makes sense, as you would
expect that pitchers who (by virtue of averaging more than 15 save
opportunities over the last three seasons) were actual closers would allow the fewest
inherited runners to score.Â After all,
that is a key component of the closer role.Â
Â

Finally, here are
the 10 relievers (who met the same criteria as the previous list) who had the
LEAST difference in their actual ERA and their R-ERA (meaning, they allowed the
fewest inherited runners to score).

style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Player	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ERA	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>R-ERA	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>DIFF	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>%DIFF
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Gagne, Eric style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â TEX	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.20	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.20	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.00	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Turnbow, Derrick style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â MIL	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.95	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.16	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.21	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-5%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hoffman, Trevor style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â SD	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.47	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.62	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.16	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-6%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Nathan, Joe style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â MIN	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.92	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.05	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.13	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-7%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Dempster, Ryan style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â CHC	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.88	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.16	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.28	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-7%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Julio, Jorge style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â FLA	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.96	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.35	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.39	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-8%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Wickman, Bob style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â ATL	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.96	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.33	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.37	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-12%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Reitsma, Chris style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â SEA	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.77	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5.37	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.60	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-13%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> w:st="on">Cordero style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>, Chad style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Â WAS	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.70	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.05	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.35	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-13%
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Wagner, Billy style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â NYM	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.05	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.32	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.27	style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-13%

As we would expect,
some of the best of the best are listed here, including: Eric Gagne (who is only limited by injury), Trevor Hoffman, Joe Nathan,
and Billy Wagner. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â These are the most solid relievers
around.Â Interesting to note that a few
guys who are generally considered marginal closers make this list. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â These are guys like Turnbow, Dempster, style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Julio, Wickman, and Reitsma. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â This data says that despite what other issues
they may have, they do a decent job at keeping inherited runners from scoring. style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>