Deserved Wins:
We define Deserved Wins as Quality Starts * .74. Typically a pitcher wins
74% of his Quality Starts (As a reminder, Quality Starts is defined by Bill James as a start where the pitcher has gone at
least 6 innings and has given up 3 runs or fewer). Using this indicator we
can determine if the pitcher was unfortunate or fortunate in his pitching
Win totals. Another consideration is pitchers who may be stuck on a poor
offensive team; their deserved wins totals will be less than their actual Win
totals. Conversely a pitcher on a good offensive team may have actual win
totals which may exceed his deserved totals. Depending on the quality of the
offensive unit, this could account for a 4-5 win swing or 2-3 wins above or
below expectations.
From a
forecasting standpoint, we can forecast a pitcher’s win totals the following
season based on the improvement or degradation of his team support. Keep in
mind that players who were unusually lucky or unlucky in their Win totals
are mistakenly over or undervalued during the following fantasy draft
season. Such considerations are part of our player projections model.
Less Wins than Deserved
More Wins than Deserved
1
Cain,M.
-9
1
Wakefield,T.
6
2
Meche,G.
-8
2
Billingsley,C.
5
3
Arroyo,B.
-7
3
Beckett,J.
5
4
Snell,I.
-7
4
Zambrano,C.
5
5
Haren,D.
-6
5
Lowry,N.
4
6
Guthrie,J.
-6
6
Vargas,C.
4
7
Garland,J.
-6
7
Wang,C.
4
8
Jackson,E.
-5
8
Eaton,A.
4
9
Smoltz,J.
-5
9
Greinke,Z.
4
10
Westbrook,J.
-5
10
Byrd,P.
4
11
Lincecum,T.
-5
11
Durbin,C.
4
12
Buehrle,M.
-5
12
Escobar,K.
3
13
Young,C.
-4
13
Perez,O.
3
14
Glavine,T.
-4
14
Hamels,C.
3
15
Hernandez,O.
-4
15
Francis,J.
3
16
Penny,B.
-3
16
Hernandez,F.
3
17
Mitre,S.
-3
17
James,C.
3
18
Williams,W.
-3
18
DiNardo,L.
3
19
Cook,A.
-3
19
Batista,M.
3
20
Hernandez,L.
-3
20
Hendrickson,M.
3
When properly used, Deserved Wins, Expected ERA, Singles % or BHIP, Runners Stranded %, and K/BB ratios are some of the most compelling forecasting tools available.
Comments (0)