In our continuing series on player recommendations, today we take a look at the pitchers who are deviating from their projected production. The past has shown us that pitchers have a more difficult time reverting to their historical mean....

The first 5 weeks of the 2011 Baseball Season are history and as typical there are quite a few players who are struggling and a quite a few who are posting MVP type numbers...but who deserves to be where?  Welcome...

The Inconsistent Player Several years ago we introduced Consistency Factor and it's implications to both Head to Head leagues as well as all Fantasy leagues regardless of their scoring setup. We run and update this piece every season because...

Last week we discussed the shift we've seen from pitchers in this post PEDs era. Today we're going to look at what's happening on the offensive side. Like Yin and Yang, what happens on one side must also affect...

In our continuing series on player recommendations, the latest edition of Strategy Manager + highlights the pitchers who are deviating from their projected production this season. The under and over producers are listed according to their projected rankings through...

UMA - Undervalued Mound Aces.  A situation predicated by a market condition in the fantasy community where: TOP TIER PITCHERS are discounted beyond reasonable ration.  Yes pitchers are more injury prone thus offering less predictability, however they are being...

Hi Folks, The first spring training sites have officially opened! Most importantly player news is starting to trickle in (down below). Before we get to it, lets visit a topic which is possibly related to the decline in offensive production:...

Hi folks, as we all know the second portion of the season is pivotal in our quest to have an admirable finish. I always say that you need two things to win a fantasy championship: Skill & the absence...

With the half way point here, it's time to look at the production (rankings) we expect from the top 300 position players in the second half of 2009. Subscribing to the regression to the mean concept (the statistical term referring...

In our continuing series on the the "Over" and "Under" producers, presented is the June Hitter's edition. As we mentioned in the last report, all Major League Players hit hot and cold stretches during the season....and since our first report...

In our continuing series on player recommendations, today we take a look at the pitchers who are deviating from their projected production. I want to start this year's Pitcher segment by saying: historically pitchers have a much more difficult...

In today’s belated edition of Sabermetric Tuesday we’re going to talk about the most unheralded aspect of Fantasy Baseball: Defense. In traditional or “real” sports the cliché “Defense wins Championships” is one of the most commonly used phrases throughout the...

Second Half Rankings Pitchers Edition (Posted 7/02/08)Every season we come across players who unexplainably perform at higher or lower levels during certain periods of the season.  One possible explanation behind the phenomena: second half "positive trends" are due to...

With the half way point officially upon us, it's a good time to look at the production (rankings) we expect from the top 300 position players in the second half of 2008. Subscribing to the regression to the mean...

At the end of April we introduced the concept of the Disaster Start and took a look back at the 2007 data in hopes of highlighting some “safer” spot-start or back-end options for your fantasy team. So today we’re going...

In this week’s edition of Sabermetric Tuesdays we’re going to take a look at one of my favorite indicators for Pitchers: the Runners Stranded Percentage. The Runners Stranded Percentage is a pretty simple statistics to understand, it’s simply measuring the...

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Sabermetric Tuesday – Week 10 style. Today I’d like to try and see if we can find some solid evidence pointing toward sustained breakouts on the offensive side of the ball, and perhaps unearth...

First Pitch: Splitsville Part II As promised earlier in the week, we’re back with the second edition of “Splitsville”. After taking a look at Team Batting Splits, which should aid in making pitching decisions for your fantasy team, we’ll take...

Hopefully everyone is well rested after the long and well deserved holiday weekend! Before we get into our usual Sabermetric Tuesday column, let’s take a moment out to recognize and appreciate all those who have made it possible for all...

Big variances between a pitcher’s ERA and XERA can help identify buy low and sell high targets. A low XERA and a high ERA usually means good skills but some bad luck in the form of low strand rate and/or...

In our continuing series on player recommendations, today we take a look at the pitchers who are deviating from their projected production. Please refer to the Batters article for an explanation of the terms used such as FPI (FPI^ =...

Before we get to this week’s edition of Sabermetric Tuesday, I’d be remiss if I didn’t correct a mistake in my player blurbs earlier this week. Amidst a long-winded rant about my beloved Bears not turning in a draft card...

According to research by Fantistics.com only 10% of batters have a favorable control of balls hit into play. Such a low number means that many of the leaders in BHIP% (and thus batting average) are there only due to good...

New Page 1 Sabermetric Tuesdays: Analyzing Splits Ground Balls vs. Fly Balls   It’s Sabermetric Tuesday here at Fantistics! Each Tuesday we’ll dive into some of the deeper statistics we use to forecast and analyze the game of baseball....

Deserved Wins:  We define Deserved Wins as Quality Starts *  .74.  Typically a pitcher wins 74% of his Quality Starts (As a reminder, Quality Starts is defined by Bill James as a start where the pitcher has gone at...

2007 FPI All Stars and Anti-All Stars   Good morning everybody.  With the MLB season drawing to a close, today we will take a look at our own versions of All Star teams.  As our measure we will use our...

Best Skills 2007 - Pitcher K/BB   Good morning everybody.  Today we are going to take a look at the pitchers who have shown the best K/BB ratios in the majors this season.  Why is this important?  Because past research...

The signs of fall are everywhere.   The days are cooler. The leaves here in New England are turning. I am up at 5:30 am to get my kids to school every day. The Patriots are humiliating the Jets....

Improving/Declining Hitter Performance   Good morning everybody.  As the season drags on for those of us out of the money, today we will try to determine any hitters that have seen their performances improve this year versus their 3-year averages. ...

Second Half Rankings Hitters Edition Second Half Rankings Pitchers Edition (Posted 7/07/07) Every season we come across players who unexplainably perform at higher or lower levels during certain periods of the season.  One possible explanation behind the phenomena: second...

  Batting Average Production (Current vs. 3-Year Averages)   Good morning everybody.  Today we are going to focus on the category of batting average.  I don't know about your squads, but this is one area of the game in which...

When last we talked I set out some offensive team splits so we could identify particularly good or bad matchups for your pitchers.   This morning let’s check out the particularly good and bad matchups for hitters. Here are...

Here at Fantistics, we get lots of e-mail from subscribers asking for our advice on the typical fantasy issues that arise.... Spot starts, trade proposals, lineup structure, and the value of free agents are the main ones. But last...

Pitching Category Mashup (K/BB and QS%)   Good morning everybody.  For today's First Pitch we are going to do something a little off the wall -- and perhaps mathematically unsound - and mash together a couple of key pitching...

Inherited Runners Stranded Percentage Good morning everybody. For the topic of today's First Pitch, we are going to tap into some feedback that came as a result of my last column (on Adjusted Reliever ERA), as well as a notion...

In our continuing series on player recommendations, today we take a look at the pitchers who are deviating from their projected production. Please refer to the Batters article for an explanation of the terms used such as FPI (FPI^ =...

April's Under/Over Performing Batters Another April is almost in the books and as typical there are quite a few players who are in our doghouse and a quite a few players who have the keys to the penthouse...but who deserves to...

As you can see by yesterday's mailbag article by Lou, we get our fair share of email around here and we try our best to get to all of it and respond. Sometimes we'll respond back through email, through our...

Hello everybody.  As I watched in horror at another craptacular performance from the Phillies bullpen, an idea rattled around in my head.  Part of the problem we have as fantasy analysts is that we are in some situations constrained by...

A few weeks back we took a look at how to go about evaluating a potential Hitter when looking to make a free agent acquisition. We talked about evaluating specific statistics like EYE, BHIP%, HR Rate, etc and how to...

Hi everybody.  Just wanted to let you all know that the updated Park Factor reference files have been posted in the Fantistics Reference Toolbox.   Data for all major league ballparks is included, and is presented in two different...

Park Factor For my initial First Pitch of the year I thought it would be a good idea to revisit the Park Factor statistic. This should provide you with a handy reference that you can use to determine which ballparks...

We talk about numbers all the time here ...   They are important to what we do. The key to this whole game we play is to determine which numbers more accurately indicate performance and which numbers more accurately...

Before we get to today's First Pitch I wanted to say thank you to the readers that took the time out to respond to my AL and NL Predictions blog earlier this week. I enjoy hearing the responses and while...

We spend a lot of time fretting about how well a pitcher is going to adjust to a change in leagues. We treat the AL and the NL like two separate animals when we consider such a switch, and with...

Runners Stranded Percentage (RS%) Runners Stranded Percentage: Measures the percentage of batters that reach base but do not score (more specifically, are not credited to a pitcher's Earned Runs). The average stranded percentage for starters is .71. Pitchers with...

Expected ERA vs Actual ERA Expected ERA (XERA) depicts a pitcher's "True ERA" as it bases its expectation on factors within a pitcher's control. These factors include Hits, Walks, Home Runs allowed and K's. When you consider the inequity...